Electric Energy Storage Breakthrough?

This is really intriguing -- a fairly low-tech, low-loss way to store and smooth out power from intermittent sources (solar, wind), and one that works where there's no water or elevation gradient! If this pans out, this is great news, as it means that we can suffer less discomfort when we turn off the coal plants, as we must if we want any chance to bequeath future generations a stable climate.

We interrupt this glorious day for this warning

Uh-oh. From a NYT story on lead contamination in urban gardens. No reason to think Salem is exempt.

Since 2003, hazardous amounts of lead have been documented in backyard and community gardens in New York as well as in Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Los Angeles, Minneapolis, New Orleans, Philadelphia and Washington. Lead-laden soil has been found not only in inner city neighborhoods but also suburban areas.

“It doesn’t matter if you’re rich or poor,” said David Johnson, a professor of environmental chemistry at the State University of New York College of Environmental Science and Forestry in Syracuse, where he has found lead concentrations as high as 65,000 p.p.m. in the yards of upscale homes. “Lead knows no socioeconomic boundaries.”

Excessive lead in soil is the legacy not only of lead paint but also of leaded gasoline, lead plumbing and lead arsenate pesticides. Although these products were outlawed decades ago, their remnants linger in the environment. Lead batteries and automotive parts, particularly wheel balancing weights, are still widely used and are sources of soil contamination.

Soil is likely to contain high levels of lead if it is near any structure built before 1978, when lead-based paint was taken off the market, or if a building of that vintage was ever demolished on the site. Pesticides containing lead were often used on fruit trees, so land close to old orchards is also of concern. And beware of soil around heavily trafficked roadways; it, too, is probably laced with lead. But environmental engineers and soil experts said any place is potentially tainted. . . .

Cool

Practical Slideshow - Xtraycle from Xtracycle on Vimeo.

Get ready for the bipartisan attack on Social Security

Although this may seem pretty far afield for a locally focused blog, the noises indicating that the rich are getting close to the long-held dream of rolling back the key reform of the 20th Century in America, universal social pension and disability insurance has huge implications for Salem. As a government town with a disproportionately large disabled and needy population, cuts in Social Security will have an especially devastating impact on Salem.

The most important thing to watch as the debate cranks up is to see which assumptions are treated as givens and which givens are totally suppressed and ignored (like the use of different assumptions for economic growth depending on the desired outcome).

The chart above shows just how pessimistic projections are being used to justify rolling back benefits for working people, even while raising the cap on income subject to the social security withholding is never even whispered.

Robert Reich - Fifteen years ago, when I was a trustee of the Social Security and the Medicare trust funds (which meant, essentially, that I and a few others met periodically with the official actuary of the funds, received his report, asked a few questions, and signed some papers) both funds were supposedly in trouble. But as I learned, the timing and magnitude of the trouble depended a great deal on what assumptions the actuary used in his models. As I recall, he then assumed that the economy would grow by about 2.6 percent a year over the next seventy-five years. But go back into American history all the way to the Civil War -- including the Great Depression and the severe depressions of the late 19th century -- and the economy's average annual growth is closer to 3 percent. Use a 3 percent assumption and Social Security is flush for the next seventy-five years. . .

Even if you assume Social Security is a problem, it's not a big problem. Raise the ceiling slightly on yearly wages subject to Social Security payroll taxes (now a bit over $100,000), and the problem vanishes under harsher assumptions than I'd use about the future. President Obama suggested this in the campaign and stirred up a hornet's nest because this solution apparently dips too deeply into the middle class, which made him backtrack and begin talking about raising additional Social Security payroll taxes on people earning over $250,000. Social Security would also be in safe shape if it were slightly more means tested, or if the retirement age were raised just a bit. The main point is that Social Security is a tiny problem, as these things go. . .

Don't be confused by these alarms from the Social Security and Medicare trustees. Social Security is a tiny problem. Medicare is a terrible one, but the problem is not really Medicare; it's quickly rising health-care costs. Look more closely and the real problem isn't even health-care costs; it's a system that pushes up costs by rewarding inefficiency, causing unbelievable waste, pushing over-medication, providing inadequate prevention, over-using emergency rooms because many uninsured people can't afford regular doctor checkups, and spending billions on advertising and marketing seeking to enroll healthy people and avoid sick ones.

Cars are the problem, not the solution

From an online blatherfest about the car-free European town article linked here a few days ago, at least one of the participants (blatherers?) has it right:

No Half-Steps, No Cars

J.H. Crawford is the author of “Carfree Cities” and “Carfree Design Manual.” He publishes Carfree.com.

Proof is essentially mathematical that car-free cities are possible in the modern world (as if the existence of Venice and Fes-al-Bali in Morocco were not sufficient proof enough). We can offer a high quality of life at a far lower cost to the Earth’s ecosystems. It would also save plenty of money.

The energy savings are large and come not just in motor fuel. Heating and cooling require much less energy because buildings share common walls. Much less water is required. Far more land is left untouched.

I support the New Urbanism but strongly prefer the pure car-free solution, as the advantages are even greater. Once the last car disappears from the street, it becomes a playground for people of all ages. This can be seen any day in Venice or Fes. Peace, safety and tranquility settle over the street, and a rich and vibrant social life takes the place of the stink, noise, and danger of cars.

Local shops and services are essential. Good public transport is required except in the small cities.

Rail systems offer the best service. Bikes will be important in most cases. Walking is the mainstay, and routine shops and services, including schools, must be within walking distance, say five minutes.

All of this requires moderately high density. Anyone who has visited Amsterdam, Copenhagen, Berlin, Madrid, Lisbon or Siena already knows what this feels like. Boston’s Beacon Hill and Back Bay neighborhoods could readily be made carfree. Washington Mews in Manhattan is a tiny slice of carfree life right in our midst.

Streets are quite narrow, buildings are about four stories tall, and, in the best practice, there is a large green courtyard in the heart of each block.

We don’t yet have car-free cities in North America. This is mainly a failure of imagination. Americans are so used to driving everywhere that the mere thought of being without a car is terrifying. But life without urban cars is not only possible, it is delightful.

What is the Future of Education in a Post-oil America?

A friend involved in preparing for the transition to post-peak-oil America here in Cascadia has been mulling over the future of education, a field where he spent the end of the his second formal career (before starting his third as a farmer). He writes the following, which I pose as a query to those following LOVESalem. Feel free to chime in with a comment to respond to all of this or just a little piece of it.

The following quandary, described for education, applies to all public services --- and it is what our Whatcom County peak oil task force has discussed ad nauseum, with no sign of any conclusion on any aspect. You're all knowledgeable about peak oil and its likely consequences, so you're uniquely qualified to think beyond the peak.

All public education, by definition, gets funding from the entire tax base. We've seen already what happens in an economic downturn like the one we're in now - that tax base shrinks, and the tax collectors at all levels (except the feds, who just keep printing money and bailing out rich folks and fantasizing about "return to a growth economy") have to - by law - balance their budget and either

1. raise taxes, and/or
2. cut services.

In our state, nobody yet has the courage to go after more taxes - and schools at all levels are cutting budgets - including K-20 layoffs for the first time in anyone's memory.

Given that every burp in the price and/or availability of oil has always been followed by recession, and given that peak oil now means we now face decades of higher and higher oil prices and less and less availability, it's reasonable to think we'll have an ever-deepening recession, and an ever-declining tax base (or alternatively, taxes approaching 100%). At some point pretty soon, rising taxes will generate an awesome tax revolt, so we'd best start thinking about how to re-structure all education, from K-20, assuming there will be continually declining funding for it.

My guess is that the first thing deans & principals will advocate for is reduction in red-tape requirements, and all the 'non-essential' add-ons from the last few decades could disappear in a few years in order to avoid laying off faculty.

But I imagine something far worse than surgical fat trimming for a few years --- I envision cuts over the next few decades of a factor of, say, two to five. Not percent - but funding cuts by 2 to 5 times - coming on gradually over the next 20-30 years. If that seems a likely, or even a possible, outcome - then wised-up educators & ex-educators like yourselves could make yourselves super-useful by developing the outlines of a completely new strategic plan for that future, complete with a transition strategy. I do not see this as an "opportunity" for change - rather it's an exercise to engage in out of desperation in the post-peak world we're likely to enter tomorrow --- with a world short of all essential resources and in a state of major population overshoot. Some questions to start with:

1. What things about the system need fixing, regardless of peak oil? You've all mentioned several of those things already.

2. What will a desperate population REALLY need to know for maximum survival and well-being (or, if you're a pessimist, for minimal die-off)?

3. How can we re-organize K-20 education to provide that knowledge and/or experience?

4. What are the physical constraints (i.e., our super-silly suburban living arrangements, with severe restrictions on getting around - and don't tell me mass transit, which also depends on the tax base & fuel)?

5. What are some other big questions to consider?

Several years ago I asked author and educator Richard Heinberg whether he'd thought about this for higher ed, and he gave a massive shrug of his virtual shoulders and said he'd thought of it but it was too big for him.

Collectively, educators need to begin addressing this issue, just as the medical profession is belatedly starting to do.

A very encouraging word -- growing food instead of lawns in the Willamette Valley!

From grass to grains

An Oregon local foods movement finds opportunity in the economic crisis

News - From the May 04, 2009 issue of High Country News by Carla A. Wise

. . . . Stalford and his wife, Willow Coberly, have begun a pioneering experiment on part of their 9,000-acre Willamette Valley spread.

The couple owns the first large conventional farm to join the Southern Willamette Valley Bean and Grain Project, a movement to rebuild and re-localize the entire food system in Oregon's most productive farming region. Instead of focusing exclusively on expensive specialty foods — the fruits, meats and vegetables found at local farmers' markets and restaurants — the project aims to organically grow and locally sell the grains and beans that are the foundation of most diets. Eventually, project members hope that all the food consumed here will be local. And they say that the Willamette Valley's 900,000 acres of cropland are more than adequate to feed its 2.5 million residents, including Portland.

That conversion won't be easy . . . .

The seeds for the project were planted several years ago when farmer and food activist Harry MacCormack bought a bunch of beans and grains from the bulk bins in the Corvallis co-op and successfully grew many of them on his 15-acre organic farm. Further experiments and discussion eventually led MacCormack, Stalford, Coberly and others to found the Southern Willamette Valley Bean and Grain Project in January 2008. It has grown since: Participants now include other organic farmers, community activists, two food security groups, a USDA Farm Services director, an Extension horticulturalist and others. In 2008, MacCormack and five homestead-size farms grew nine varieties of beans and more than a dozen grains. Stalford and Coberly planted 100 acres of five types of beans, and produced a successful harvest of organic hard red wheat. And both Stalford and MacCormack were able to sell everything they grew. . . .

The transition hasn't been easy for Stalford, who has no experience with organic methods. "We're just shooting in the dark," he says. "We have no idea what we are doing." Coberly is more optimistic. True, the couple planted their beans too late last year, and some didn't ripen in time. But the red wheat and garbanzos did well and fetched excellent prices. Coberly has been pushing Stalford to explore sustainable farming practices. Swayed by the soil depletion and fertility losses he's seen over 40 years of farming, Stalford is rotating crops, composting crop waste, and reducing chemical use on his fields. Stalford says his neighbors tease him down at the coffee shop, but he's not giving up. This year, Stalford and Coberly are increasing their certified organic crop of red wheat and dry beans to 135 acres. They also plan to get an additional 360 acres certified for organic food production — a three-year process — and Stalford is considering planting 500 acres of beans in rotation with his grass seed.

The increased production, however, raises an infrastructure problem. Hummingbird Wholesale and the Corvallis co-op are committed to buying local beans and grains, but the storage and processing systems have to be rebuilt. Project organizers need businesses interested in developing storage, processing and distribution for local food. The Ten Rivers Food Web, a local food nonprofit that MacCormack helped found, recently purchased a portable seed cleaner. The group did a study examining the feasibility of local processing and has applied for more grant money to build a community processing facility. . . .

Despite the battered economy, demand for bulk organic foods is up, Tilt says. MacCormack says the main obstacles remain mind-set and infrastructure. And, he says, those are obstacles that can be overcome.

Stop unwanted phonebook dumping! Save a forest or two . . .

Urgent -- call or email your Oregon legislators and ask that they SUPPORT HB 3477 to STOP unwanted and wasteful phonebook distribution and make companies only give phonebooks to people who request them. This is a great and long overdue idea. (h/t to bojack for noticing this.)

To find your legislators.

US public health institutions start pondering peak oil

Hat tip to the ever-excellent "Energy Bulletin" site for this:

Insights pertaining to the public health implications of peak oil
became the focus for the remainder of the day. . . .

* Awareness: The public health community has barely begun to address peak oil; ignorance of the problem is today's norm; the health system takes for granted long-term resource availability, and has made minimal preparation for disruptions in supply.

* Scope: Peak oil has the potential to significantly disrupt each of the three essential pillars of sustainable well-being—economic, sociopolitical, and environmental

* Disruption Potential: Peak oil will have its public health impacts in the United States on a medical care system that is natural resource-intensive, cost-intensive, and neither encourages nor supports saving resources; peak oil will intensify known public health hazards, create new hazards, and impact the entire public health preparedness system.

* Regional Vulnerability: Especially in rural regions, delivery of health care is highly dependent on private vehicle transport to get health care providers to their centralized locations, to bring critically ill patients to service facilities, and to meet the clinical care and outpatient needs of widely dispersed populations.

* Trend: Public health services in the United States have already experienced increasing demands coupled with decreasing ability to meet them; fewer people can afford private health insurance; most officials surveyed expect further funding cuts ahead.

* Sector-specificity: The public health system is highly vulnerable because of its deep dependence upon oil for transport of patients and providers, for the disposable plastic supplies which are the foundation of modern antiseptic hygiene, as well as for energy-intensive hospital operations and for pharmaceutical feedstock.

* Limited Mitigation Options: Public health planners can undertake scenario planning, and set up hospital-level committees to make decisions about scarce medical supply allocations

* Scarce-resource Allocation: Peak oil can be expected increase the duration and severity of disaster events, and of post-event responses; public health officials are accustomed to planning for the allocation of scarce resources during emergencies, but have not yet factored peak oil into such planning.

* Triage: Peak oil disaster preparedness is inadequate or non-existent; there is a significant risk of a mental health "surge" overwhelming the minimal surplus capacity of hospital emergency departments; it is crucial that allocation of finite petroleum- based healthcare be perceived as fair to preserve trust and adherence to other policies (e.g., quarantines).

The series of conclusions above paints a picture of a nation under-prepared for the impact that peak oil will have on health. As Brian Schwartz of the Bloomberg School concluded, "It is probably now too late to mitigate all the threats." Yet the conference also provided grounds for encouragement. There was broad agreement, for example, with the CDC's Jeremy Hess that "Public health workers have a responsibility to let people know that peak oil is a very real and imminent public health issue." Peak oil education, he argued, must become part of the job of insuring public health. As this happens, the field's professionals will draw on their experience in framing threats
to health care in ways that reach the public effectively. They will also call on their expertise in allocating scarce resources through procedures that people can perceive as fair and transparent, and therefore oriented towards maintaining public trust and social cohesion. As Bloomberg's Stuart Chaitkin suggested, "What is needed is a global energy revolution with three platform planks: end denial; change behavior (retrofit, travel less, eat low on the food chain, develop a preventative healthcare system); and plan for likely shortages."

A Honey of an Idea

Keep bees. Two of the folks who showed up last night to demonstrate support for Chickens in the Yard brought their two darling young daughters and talked about how they were all (including the young girls) having fun keeping honeybees here in Salem -- an outstanding idea. They took a "Beekeeping 101" class at Chemeketa and, for just a few hundred dollars, got the gear and training they needed to get into beekeeping. Not only will they enjoy some home-produced honey, their fruit trees will thrive.

It is impossible to overstate the importance of pollinators like honeybees to humans
No pollinators = no food.

Simple as that.