Documentary on environmental causes of breast cancer

Image via Wikipedia

Given the huge spike in breast cancer since WWII and the fact that human genetics haven't changed in that time, perhaps it has some other cause . . . hmmm, what could that be? Hmmm . . . must ponder that.

Response to Dean Baker's "The Deficit and Our Children"

Long-term oil prices (yellow line is inflation-adjusted) 1861-2007. The recent price spikes will soon be recalled as "the good old days." Image via Wikipedia

I really like and admire Dean Baker and have greatly valued his sharp insights over the years. I put no stock in anything the shysters in the Concord Coalition are selling, and despise the transparent efforts by them and others to repeal the New Deal in the name of deficit reduction (while leaving the military and Wall St. riding high on the hog, naturally). His article (linked below), "The Deficit and Our Children" is a fair attempt to counter the faux hysteria of the right over deficits (now that a Democrat is in the White House).

However, I fear that, like most economists, Baker has entirely missed something that will have a profound effect on his rosy projections of great future wealth thanks to the magic of growth: the end of cheap energy, often referred to in shorthand as "peak oil."

I like to summarize it for people this way:

(1) essentially all our great wealth in the US reflects not our industry or ingenuity or Providential favor but rather our dumb luck at conquering a land richly endowed with abundant and essentially free energy. Our economic growth parallels exactly our increased consumption of these fossil fuels.

(2) Coal is a health disaster, not only in miners killed directly but in catastrophic direct and indirect environmental consequences of coal use, particularly in climate change. We must stop using coal, leaving nearly all of what remains in the ground or else be doomed by our own poisons.

(3) Oil has reached or is just past its point of maximum abundance now -- meaning that, from here on out, it will inexorably decrease in availability, forcing prices up to bring supply and demand into equilibrium.

(4) The relentless increase in oil prices -- even aside from the great price volatility we can expect, which is very destructive to our complex economic systems -- make Baker's growth projections absurd. We are going to learn that ultimately economic wealth depends on natural resources, and that tying everything in our economy to an assumption of endlessly available cheap energy was a disastrous (albeit easily explained) blunder.

(5) Because our entire economic system is based on continual growth and because our economy is very unlikely to grow and is instead highly likely to shrink relentlessly to reflect the steady decrease in the availability of energy and the total absence of the kind of cheap energy we've come to expect (and upon which we've set up everything in America, from suburbia to health care), we can expect a wrenching change in the next decade. When we're facing persistent and ineradicable unemployment at 40-50%, we're going to find out that arguments about the health of the social security trust fund in 2043 are about as relevant as the price of tea in Lilliput.

(6) To bring this back to health, the point is this: Just as our public health demands are going to be climbing --- thanks to climate disruption, the huge "baked in" amount of obesity-related diseases, and collapsing civil infrastructure (clean water) and peoples' inability to afford the medicines we've taught them to expect --- our resources are going to be shrinking steadily.

For a good menu of stories exploring the connection between health and the end of cheap energy, you can go here

http://energybulletin.net/taxonomy/term/67

For a concise explanation of the mechanics of peak oil and a good introduction to other resources, try here: http://energybulletin.net/primer

For a good attempt to explore the health consequences of trying to use coal to maintain the high-energy lifestyle, see here:

Climate Chaos: Your Health at Risk What You Can Do to Protect Yourself and Your Family (Public Health)

http://www.powells.com/biblio/71-9780275998585-0

Baker's column is here.

ODOT hammers Salem and its own greenhouse gas reduction goals

Image by Jason McHuff via Flickr

What is up with the State of Oregon trying to kill Salem's downtown?

At the north end of town the state has been busily filling up the Capital City Business "Center" -- the center of nowhere, actually, -- with hundreds of office workers, in a "center" that has no direct bus service from downtown Salem.* And now ODOT is planning to permanently move hundreds of high-paid white collar technical jobs out of downtown and into an area suited for manufacturing!

So even as the state makes a big show out of its greenhouse gas reduction goals, it keeps moving workers out of the bike-able and walkable core area that has the best service by bus. Instead, it's going to fill prime industrial space in a transit-inaccessible area with office workers, which means expensive interior refits and more driving by all those workers, plus starving downtown businesses of vitally needed customers.

But hey, who cares if Oregon's capital starts to look like Michigan's (Lansing's downtown is a scary, depressing vision -- something that Salem does NOT want to emulate). Something about these deals stinks.

-At the former Tyco building at 4040 Fairview Industrial Drive SE, ODOT wants to take 75,000 square feet of space on a 10-year lease, Miles said. The 4040 Fairview site will become the permanent home for ODOT's Technical Services and a section of Information Services. In all, about 300 workers will be based at the former Tyco building.

The building was built as a sister manufacturing site for Tyco's now defunct circuit board plant in the Polk County town of Dallas. Tyco broke ground on the project in autumn 2000, but Tyco never used the building for manufacturing and it became a symbol of the downturn in Oregon's high-tech industry. The vacant building is now owned by State Investment LLC, a local investment group.

-ODOT's plans call for about 220 employees to go to the former SUMCO building at 3930 Fairview Industrial Drive SE. The agency wants a two-year lease for about 65,000 square feet of space.

Employees at the old SUMCO building will return to the Capitol Mall building when the renovations are complete.

In 2004, SUMCO phased out its local manufacturing operations. The shutdown marked the end of an era that started in the 1980s when Siltec, a predecessor to SUMCO, began making silicon wafers in Salem.

Cascadia Canyon LLC, a group with ties to Sunwest Management Inc., controlled the SUMCO property for several years. Past attempts to bring new businesses to the property came to a standstill when Salem-based Sunwest's financial problems spun out of control in fall of 2008. New owners, who are affiliated with Salem developer Jack Fox, have recently acquired most of the former SUMCO campuses.

There's something that Oregon seems to struggle with that world-class organizations figured out a long time ago: you can't let divisions optimize their own corner of the world at the expense of the whole organization. You have to optimize as a whole. Meaning that, even if we think the move of 300 prime workers is strictly on the up-and-up and has no hidden ulterior motive behind it, it still allows one division (ODOT) to make it's own numbers look better by making Salem's and the State of Oregon's look worse. Only by ignoring the impact of the move on Salem and on the state's own goals for reducing vehicle trips can you are argue that this pencils out, and it would only pencil out for ODOT management. It's going to hurt Salem as a whole, hurt those 300 workers who are losing their options for biking or walking or taking the bus to work, and it's going to hammer downtown businesses.

Funny, there's some prime spaces in the very heart of downtown that could be refitted to serve office workers much easier than refitting manufacturing space ... but apparently no one is keeping an eye on how the state as a whole treats Salem -- especially sad given how much property tax revenue the state doesn't pay. The Legislature loves to badger the feds for timber payments in lieu of taxes for federally owned land, but apparently sees no connection with Salem's starved budgets and all the state-owned property in Salem.

(* Amusingly, Cherriots uses a photo of CCBC in some of its promotional materials with a caption along the lines of "Cherriots, We Take You There" -- irony at its finest. CCBC sits at the far end of the little northeast-pointing appendix grafted onto the otherwise circular Route 14 -- a route almost fiendishly well calculated to be useless.)

Sad -- scratch Maurer from the list

The best candidate after all -- Susan Castillo. Image via Wikipedia

Sad. Ron Maurer appeared to be a good choice for State Superintendent of Instruction . . . but just got this note from Steve Novick:

. . . I would be remiss if I did not tell you that my old and good friend Susan Castillo, State Superintendent of Public Instruction, needs help defeating an opponent, Republican Representative Ron Maurer, who not only opposed Measures 66 and 67 -- thus showing a shocking willingness to see school funding cut - but opposed the Healthy Kids plan in the Legislature, which gave health insurance to tens of thousands of Oregon children. Ron Maurer is not well known, but he's still a threat - because in an anti-incumbent environment, people might just vote against the person they've heard of, especially if she doesn't have the resources to get her message out. In this officially nonpartisan race, with only two real candidates. it's important for you to know that whoever gets over 50% WINS THE WHOLE RACE IN MAY - there isn't going to be a November race.

Susan Castillo is not all that and a bag of chips, but Maurer loses any hope of being able to pass himself off as an advocate for schools and youth by opposing Measures 66 & 67; fighting to keep poor kids uninsured is just a little extra confirmation thrown in. Putting him in charge of schools would be like putting Ted Nugent in charge of meal planning for the Vegetarian Society. I'm sorry I posted anything encouraging people to consider him.

An opportunity for a REAL taste of history

Image by Sideshow Bruce via Flickr

Not far from here. Open daily, May-October.

Tell DEQ: Get Beyond Coal NOW -- Convert or shutdown Boardman by 2014 at the latest

Just one of the many beauties of nature put at risk by runaway climate chaos caused by burning coal at Boardman. Image via Wikipedia

From Friends of the Columbia Gorge:

PGE's coal-burning power plant near Boardman is the #1 stationary source of greenhouse gasses in Oregon and the largest source of nitrogen oxide and sulfur dioxide in Oregon. These pollutants are damaging ecosystems, impairing scenic views and endangering Native American cultural resources in the Columbia River Gorge.

The Oregon Department of Environmental Quality (DEQ) is now reviewing a "Title V" operating permit that would allow PGE's coal plant in Boardman to continue spewing dangerous pollutants into the Columbia River Gorge and surrounding areas. This permit is an opportunity for DEQ to require full compliance with the Clean Air Act by requiring modern pollution control technology at PGE's Boardman.

WHAT YOU CAN DO:

#1. WRITE THE DEQ TODAY. Ask that they require clean up or shut down of PGE's coal plant in Boardman. In the past, your voice has made a difference! Thousands of comments from the public forced the DEQ to require more aggressive mercury controls at Boardman. Click here to take action.

[If you're in Portland: #2. TELL THEM IN PERSON by attending a public meeting on Tuesday, May 4th. We are hoping to fill the room with passionate supporters who will wear "beyond coal" t-shirts, provided by the Sierra Club! Click here for details.]

What the Democrats in Congress Ought to Do

Image via Wikipedia

The GOP get absurd amounts of support from small business owners, considering how often the GOP ideas are actually just pro-big-corporate and anti-small-business.

But the image of the parties is there and needs fixing. To help with that, here's an idea I just sent to Congressman Kurt Schrader, who is on the Small Business subcommittee.

If the Democrats grab hold of this, they will have a great issue to run on in November, and the GOP will be totally unable to oppose it without looking completely unprincipled (I know, I know, but they don't like to have it made so obvious . . . )

Idea 1

This is a proposal for a small business financing improvement that could be a signature initiative for Democrats and help lots of people here in the jobless "recovery."

1) Allow anyone starting a new small business to tap their 401(k)/IRA/457/403b retirement funds to fund the small business or to serve as security for an SBA loan.

2) Allow the funds to be withdrawn or pledged as security for a small business development loan without tax penalty and with state and federal tax deferred until the business has been established for three years.

3) After three years, either (a) the money is replaced in the fund(s) and no tax consequence occurs; or (b) 20% of the total withdrawn has to be declared as regular income for the next five years.

That's the main idea and I can't see any downside to Democrats here whatsoever -- it's a pro-small business idea, it would help workers left unemployed by job cuts, and it doesn't require any federal outlay.

Idea 2

Allow anyone who is unemployed to make mortgage payments from their retirement accounts without the 10% penalties -- that is, they have to declare the distributions as regular income in the year that it's used, but people shouldn't have to pay a tax penalty for using retirement assets to preserve their ownership of their #1 retirement asset, their home.

Yay! An elected official actually looking further than a car-length ahead

Bob Krebs of the Cherriots (um, "Salem-Keizer Transit") board sends the encouraging word that the Cherriots board is thinking about the future and about providing some transportation options that don't demand liquid fuel.

Modern streetcars are again being considered as a means to upgrade transportation options in the Salem-Keizer area. A new citizens’ committee is being organized to look into how streetcars might best serve our community. The committee is a working group that will report to the Salem-Keizer Transit Board.

You are being contacted because you have served on an earlier Salem streetcar committee or have expressed an interest in streetcars. This new group will meet, 60 to 90 minutes, once or twice a month to work on this project. If you still have an interest in this concept and would like to participate, you would be welcomed as a member of this new committee.

Committee members will develop a work plan and goals for the project. We will be researching technology and costs to find what might work best in Salem-Keizer. Our focus will be on corridors where there already is travel demand and where the streetcar can provide needed additional capacity and increased transit usage. Creative ways to keep construction and operation costs affordable will be considered. One of our goals might be to develop a new streetcar system model that can be used for medium size American cities.

Many things have changed since the Central Salem Streetcar Feasibility Study was completed. There are now federal grants available to fund new streetcar systems. This could bring new dollars into our region without jeopardizing current transportation programs. A few months ago the first modern streetcar manufactured in the U.S. rolled out of the factory in Clackamas, Oregon.

I hope you find this proposal as exciting as I do. A streetcar system will end up producing many jobs for our community and the State of Oregon. It would give Salem-Keizer a more positive image for attracting new businesses and providing more employment opportunities. There would be a surge in transit oriented development and mobility improvements that support a viable local economy.

I invite you to join me as a member of this new Salem-Keizer Rapid Transit Streetcar Committee, planning for our future. There will be a lot of work, but lots of fun too.
To participate, just send me an e-mail (krebsr@cherriots.org) or call 503-588-2424 ext. 2328 to advise us that you would like to serve.

Streetcars tend to get oversold and caught up in developers' schemes, but the basic concept is outstanding for a place like Salem, where we have sprawled into a low-density place that makes us terribly vulnerable to the coming waves of oil-price peaks. An electric streetcar system, particularly one designed to integrate smoothly with bicycles, would be ideal.

How to integrate streetcars with bikes? Easy -- a separate "bike car" on each run with wide side-doors on both sides to allow people with bikes easy-on/easy-off so that they can continue their trips by bike, operating on car-free rights of way where possible (bikes, peds, streetcars, and emergency vehicles only).

Libraries are services, not places

The tireless and wondrous Salem historian Virginia Green brings us another great piece of Salem history today with this article on the traveling library in Oregon -- something that's going to have to come back into vogue in years to come (bringing books to the readers instead of expecting readers to travel to the building where the books live).

In years to come, as fuel prices make easy transport more and more a thing of the past --- and the costs of heating, cooling, lighting, and securing libraries continues to skyrocket --- we're going to have to re-think the whole idea of libraries as places where people find books. We're going to need to develop more of a community-based system, where the books don't live in conditions suitable for people in between readings. Instead, the books are housed in an environment good for books and people call for them and then the books travel, rather than the people.

There's still an essential role for librarians in this future -- less so for massive, expensive buildings though.

Just in time for the next fuel price runup, Salem dumps more money from a plane

Image by William Joyce via Flickr

Truly bizarre. Libraries, police, fire, parks -- all being cut. Hunger rising all over town. Foreclosures up, up, up. But the airport is going to be sacrosanct. Can somebody possibly explain to me why we're supposed to all be tightening our belts, except for the folks wealthy enough to own private planes and the airlines (see photo)?