Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Cutting crime AND reducing incarcerations

This is really important, as Salem, like most places in the US, is spending way more money on crime and punishment --- including for many things that ought not to be crimes at all, and are poorly handled through the "crime" mindset --- than nearly every other place in the world. We are forgetting a very important point: no society has ever imprisoned its way to prosperity.

Key second point: When you imprison someone in the US, you are basically condemning their family for generations, as the No. 1 predictor of whether a kid will wind up imprisoned is a long prison stay for a father. We have got to get a lot smarter about using alternatives that don't wind up punishing us worse than the original behavior we're trying to sanction.
NEW YORK CITY CUTS CRIME & LOWERS NUMBER IN PRISON

David Wilson, Guardian, UK
- Michael Jacobson from the Vera Institute of Justice summed it up best of all: "In New York there is lower crime, safer communities and fewer people in prisons.". . . The United States has been in the grip of mass incarceration since 1970, and as a result is between five and 10 times more likely to use imprisonment than similar western-style democracies â€" a reality that falls disproportionately on the poor. As a result one in three adult African-Americans is now in some form of correctional supervision. More than 2.2 million Americans are currently in jail.

In New York City, however, prison numbers are declining. Rikers Island Correctional Facility. . . at its high point in the 1990s, it held as many as 23,000 individuals, overflowing into three barges moored alongside the island; its population currently rests at around 14,500. Such a population decline has enabled the jail to develop a more systematic pre-release system, which links inmates with job, treatment and training programmes in the community. . . Elsewhere, the city has actually closed some prison facilities.

At the heart of the changing sensibility towards the use of prison in New York City is an attempt to reconcile two seemingly irreconcilable concepts â€" first, taking low-level, "quality of life" crime seriously, but also, secondly, not over-relying on the use of prison as a means of combating those offenders who transgress in these ways. And, of course, convincing the community that not sending these offenders to jail but offering them other kinds of intervention is in the long run the best approach to adopt. As Greg Berman, Director of the Center for Court Innovation and formerly the lead planner for the Red Hook Community Justice Center puts it, this is not "jail or nothing" but about "problem solving justice that creates a space for punishment, help, services and accountability". . .

The New York City approach has garnered public and political support, and thus allowed criminal justice professionals to guide, prompt and push public policy. One factor in all of this has been the development of a more technocratic language to explain what is being done, or as Berman characterized it, "a move away from the language of social justice". Indeed, the most obvious example of this technocratic approach was the detailed maps of the Justice Mapping Centre â€" an organization that uses computer mapping and other graphical depictions of quantitative data "to analyze and communicate social policy information". In this way politicians from both left and right have been able to sign up to approaches which are demonstratively effective, moving away from crude ideas of what is "tough" or "soft" on crime.

David Wilson is chair of the Commission on English Prisons Today.

A fairly comprehensive look at the mess we're sliding into

A pretty good, lengthy interview with author James Howard Kunstler about peak oil and the problems caused by trying to maintain the suburban lifestyle. Some excerpts:

JHK: Well, I think that because the subject matter is so terrifying there’s a tendency to put me and what I’m saying in a crackpot folder. But, look, since I published that, the price of oil has tripled, the economy is tanking, the housing bubble imploded exactly the way I described it imploding three years ago.

The truth of the matter is: We’re not going to run Walt Disney World, Wal-Mart, and the interstate highway system on any combination of wind, solar, nuclear, bio-diesel, ethanol, or used French-fried potato oil.

Or dark matter. Or any other combination of anything you can imagine. But the wish to continue doing that is tremendous.

The main symptom of where our heads are at collectively and the failure of collective imagination in this country can be seen in the fact that the only conversation that’s going on about this all over the country is: how are we going to run the cars on some other kind of fuel. That’s all anyone wants to talk about.

And it’s not just the stupid people and its not just the NASCAR people, it’s the policy wonks and the environmentalists. The conversation is the same, and it is a huge fantasy, because that’s not going to happen. We have to really, comprehensively make other arrangements for daily life in this country—and [yet] we can’t think about it. And there’s a reason we can’t think about it: It’s called “the psychology of previous investment.” And what it means is that we put so much of our national treasure and invested so much of our identity in all the infrastructure of daily living and happy motoring that we can’t imagine letting go of it. We can’t even imagine reforming it.
On the way that oil imports will decline even faster than the oil fields themselves, as oil exporters use more of their own oil (and it requires ever-more oil investment to get a barrel of oil out of the ground):

JHK: But my point is that a lot of the people in charge in the oil industry and in government are always invoking the idea of advanced technology as being our route out of this problem—our pathway to what they call energy independence. They don’t get it—there are huge diminishing returns to technology. And in this case, you find an oil field and you only succeed in draining it more efficiently.

RB: Then what happens to all the equipment that they use? It just lays fallow?

JHK: Oh no, the equipment is used and reused—but that’s another problem in the world—and this is not generally understood either by the public or the media—that the equipment that is used all around the world for drilling and for transporting oil, and the pipelines, and the refineries are very, very old and decrepit, and they’re not being fixed and we’re not reinvesting in them, largely because the people who run the oil industry know that it’s a twilight industry. They’d rather spend the money buying back their own stock and paying enormous bonuses to their executives. There are many layers to this problem. And there’s a new one: the oil export crisis that is gathering now. It’s only really been recognized in the last 18 months or so since my previous book came out. The story is that the nations that send oil out to the importers—to us—are seeing their export rates decline more steeply than their depletion rates. So, in other words, if Saudi Arabia is depleting at three percent a year, their export rates are going down more steeply, between five and 11 percent, and what we’re also discovering is that the export rate decline is accelerating—the export rate decline is accelerating. The reason for this is that they’re using a lot more of their own oil even while they have entered depletion. So they’re getting less oil out of the ground, they’re using more of their own oil—

RB: For society or to actually get the oil out?

JHK: For both. And that’s a very astute observation because a lot of people don’t realize—they think it’s all about the Saudis and the Russians buying more cars, which they are—but it’s also a matter of them requiring more energy to lift the oil out of the ground every year, because every year the oil they have left is the stuff that’s harder to get out of the ground.

So this is the new picture that’s resolving, along with yet another new feature which is being called “oil nationalism,” which is that the oil markets are now dominated by the national oil companies—Aramco, owned by Saudi Arabia; Pemex, which is Mexico; Petrobras, which is Brazil; etc.—and they are more and more making geopolitical decisions over the allocation and distribution of their oil. They are increasingly making favored customer contracts with other nations and withholding that oil from the auction block in the futures markets. The problem with that being that the United States is less and less a favored nation.

RB: Well there’s also Nigeria and Venezuela.

JHK: Well, there a lot of them. Nigeria is kind of a mixed picture because they tend to make licensing agreements with oil companies, including American ones, so that ExxonMobil will set up a platform in Nigeria and pay royalties to the Nigerian government—that’s not necessarily controlled by the Nigerians, you know? But for all practical purposes, the operations of the Russian oil companies are directed by the central government, even though they are supposedly private companies.

Mexico is really the poster child for both of these problems. Sixty percent of Mexico’s oil production comes from a giant oil field called the Cantarell Field. It’s the second-largest oil field ever found in the history of the oil industry, and it was one of those fields that was found relatively late—in the 1970s—and drilled with the latest and greatest technology: horizontal drilling, nitrogen injection to goose the oil out, and all sorts of other tricks. And it’s now depleting at a minimum of 15 percent per year. That’s 60 percent of Mexico’s production, so it’s very easy math to do to figure that they don’t have a very long horizon on their ability to send oil to other nations. Plus they’re using more of their own. Plus the Mexican government depends on Pemex for 40 percent of their revenue.
On the media:
So there are all kinds of implications there. And, look, the New York Times isn’t paying attention—they’re doing a lousy job of covering the story. The Wall Street Journal is doing a slightly less-lousy job of covering the story. Cable news, forget about it. NPR is clueless.
On the hunger for "Big Answers" and the reality that small accommodations are going to be more effective:
As I go around to the colleges and the environmental meetings, there’s one word that keeps on coming up in the context of people saying, “give us solutions.” What I’m starting to realize is what they’re really asking for is a desperate plea for a set of miracle rescue remedies so they can keep on running Wal-Mart and suburbia and the interstates and everything. They don’t really want to hear what it is that we really can do.

What we can do is, well, there is a comprehensive menu of intelligent responses to this set of circumstances. They mainly have to do with downscaling most of the activities of normal life, reorganizing them, doing them differently, doing transportation differently, fixing the passenger railroad system—

RB: To be run on what energy?

JHK: Well they could be run on electricity. You know, this is what the Swiss showed us in World War II. They were faced with a six-year oil embargo during WW II and they reorganized their train system, and that allowed them to continue having a civilized life.

I mean, you can make electricity out of a lot of things, and that would be the intelligent thing to do, but we’re not even talking about it; it’s not even part of the presidential campaign rhetoric; it’s not there, it’s off the chart.

We need to understand that things like Wal-Mart and Target—they’re not going to function on the leaner energy diet, they’re not going to be able to run the warehouse on wheels. The just-in-time delivery of products that are made 12,000 miles away, that’s over with. We have to rebuild local networks of economic interdependency. We’re going to have to grow our food differently—because this whole trip of pouring oil and gas-based soil amendments onto the ground and then harvesting the cheese doodles, that’s going to be over with.

RB: Isn’t the new interest in organic foods a step in the right direction? . . .

JHK: Oh you bet. But I’ve rubbed shoulders, or rubbed elbows—whichever one is correct, both maybe—I’ve rubbed elbows with a lot of the organic farming organizations and they are some of the most clued-in people in America, and some of the most heroic. They really know what the score is, and they’re doing something that’s very, very important out there. Even in my region, which had been a kind of derelict dairying region where the farmers were just getting older and their farms were crapping out and their kids didn’t want to take over and they wanted to sell out to developers—that was the scene over the last 30 years. Now that’s turning around and you’re getting people who are running very mixed kind of farming there, it’s not all dairying anymore. Now it’s small lambing operations, small market operations, and the scale is correct.

RB: Meaning that they’re not interested in shipping more than, what, 50 miles, 100 miles?

JHK: Well, meaning that they’re not being organized like the pig farms in Iowa, which are just basically industrial operations.

RB: And with the expectations that this would travel far and wide.

JHK: Well, agro-business is still alive and well in the Midwest, and every year there are more giant hog operations in Iowa, there are more giant pig farms in North Carolina. It’s a terrible, tragic way of doing this.

RB: Right, but those businesses need incredible volume to sustain themselves, while a local or regional farmer who doesn’t expect to supply more than his locale—the economics of that operation doesn’t require huge volume and huge increase in volume. That’s the thing, right?

JHK: Well, the agro-business model is very different from the local organic model, in many ways, but what we’re going to find is that it’s not going to be that different in Iowa than it is in the Northeast. We’re going to have to grow food locally wherever we are in the United States, and the places that can’t do that, like Las Vegas and Tucson, you know, forget about it, they’re going to dry up and blow away.

RB: So in any case, all the locales will have to be much more diverse. Iowa is going to have to grow a lot more than corn and pigs.

Bad news: Oregon farm numbers dropping

Just when we need more people to become food producers rather than just consumers, we've got the trend going in the wrong direction.  In large part this is a function of sprawl, as the many miles of pavement and McMansions reduce land available for farming and raise land prices to levels that make it impossible to start out unless you inherit the land.  (And at those land values, the greatest incentive is to subdivide and develop, rather than keep it for farm use.)

http://is.gd/jbVr


3. Number of Oregon Farms Drops 
The number of Oregon farms is falling, and fewer young people seem to be entering the business, according to figures from the latest Census of Agriculture. Eugene Register Guard 02/11/2009

A really intriguing alternative to be conundrum faced by young people (the need to get rich enough to be able to buy some land and start a farm) may be found here:

http://www.spinfarming.com/   (and it's slightly less-intensive counterpart http://www.spingardening.com/)

MEET SPIN'S CREATORS

Wally Satzewich and Gail Vandersteen
Wally Satzewich

Wally Satzewich operates Wally's Urban Market Garden which is a multi-locational sub-acre urban farm. It is dispersed over 25 residential backyard garden plots in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, that are rented from homeowners. The sites range in size from 500 sq. ft. to 3000 sq. ft., and the growing area totals a half acre. The produce is sold at The Saskatoon Farmers Market.

Wally Satzewich and Gail Vandersteen initially started farming on an acre-sized plot outside of Saskatoon 20 years ago. Thinking that expanding acreage was critical to their success, they bought some farmland adjacent to the South Saskatchewan river 40 miles north of Saskatoon where they eventually grew vegetables on about 20 acres of irrigated land. "This was a site to die for," Ms. Vandersteen said. "It was incredibly beautiful, but the pestilence was incredible too! We couldn't believe what the bugs and deer could do. Not to mention the wind."

"We still lived in the city where we had a couple of small plots to grow crops like radishes and salad mix, which were our most profitable crops. We could grow three crops a year on the same site, pick and process on-site and put the produce into our cooler so it would be fresh for the market."
Farmer's Market

After six years farming their rural site, the couple realized there was more money to be made growing multiple crops intensively in the city, so they sold the farm and became urban growers. "People don't believe you can grow three crops a year in Saskatoon," observes Vandersteen. "They think it's too much work, but the truth is, this is much less work than mechanized, large-scale farming. We used to have a tractor to hill potatoes and cultivate, but we find it's more efficient to do things by hand. Other than a rototiller, all we need is a push-type seeder and a few hand tools."

Mr. Satzewich points out that city growing provides a more controlled environment, with fewer pests, better wind protection and a longer growing season. "We are producing 10-15 different crops and sell thousands of bunches of radishes and green onions and thousands of bags of salad greens and carrots each season. Our volumes are low compared to conventional farming, but we sell high-quality organic products at very high-end prices." The SPIN method is based on their successful experiment in downsizing which emphasizes minimal mechanization and maximum fiscal discipline and planning.

Brian Halweil, a food issues writer and researcher at the Washington-DC-based Worldwatch Institute, interviewed Mr. Satzewich and referenced his farming approach in Eat Here, which documents worldwide initiatives in building a locally-based food industries. 

Why a $600M "3d Bridge" in Salem is both wasteful and counterproductive

Nice Scientific American article that helps explain why Salem needs a third bridge like Custer needed more Indians. (hat tip to Loaded Orygun.) The key idea:

Conventional traffic engineering assumes that given no increase in vehicles, more roads mean less congestion. So when planners in Seoul tore down a six-lane highway a few years ago and replaced it with a five-mile-long park, many transportation professionals were surprised to learn that the city’s traffic flow had actually improved, instead of worsening. “People were freaking out,” recalls Anna Nagurney, a researcher at the University of Massachusetts Amherst, who studies computer and transportation networks. “It was like an inverse of Braess’s paradox.”

The brainchild of mathematician Dietrich Braess of Ruhr University Bochum in Germany, the eponymous paradox unfolds as an abstraction: it states that in a network in which all the moving entities rationally seek the most efficient route, adding extra capacity can actually reduce the network’s overall efficiency. The Seoul project inverts this dynamic: closing a highway—that is, reducing network capacity—improves the system’s effectiveness.

Although Braess’s paradox was first identified in the 1960s and is rooted in 1920s economic theory, the concept never gained traction in the automobile-oriented U.S. But in the 21st century, economic and environmental problems are bringing new scrutiny to the idea that limiting spaces for cars may move more people more efficiently.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

Government propaganda of the worst kind

Your tax dollars are going to help government mislead children into thinking that today's world of personal automobility is going to continue . . . when it's not. Even if it were a desirable thing, it can't (and won't) continue. The only question is how damaged today's kids are going to be by adults' efforts to sustain the unsustainable.

Now here's a place trying to reduce hunger in its midst

Portland has an amazing series of city-sponsored classes aimed at helping people grow more of their own food and increasing the number of pollinators.

Meanwhile, Salem residents trying to reduce hunger here in the heart of the Willamette Valley (and improve food safety and security) are hamstrung by a city government decree that allows Salem residents to keep a 100# pot-belly pig and barking dogs but forbids a few laying hens. Crazy.

Monday, February 9, 2009

Salem Transition Initiative for Relocalization (STIR) - 1st Meeting Coming Up!

How can Salem respond to the challenges, and opportunities, of Peak Oil and Climate Change?

That's the question we'd like you to help us answer. Please attend a gathering, free and open to the public, being held to introduce the Salem Transition Initiative for Relocalization (STIR).

We want to begin organizing in Salem around the issues that arise from the need to rethink the way we use energy, which permeates every other aspect of living today, from how and where we get our food, how we travel, our household budgets, what skills kids will need for the future, and many others. Our first public outreach will be a meeting to introduce the "Transition Towns" model, which is taking off in many places across the United States.

This first meeting will be held at the Straub Environmental Learning Center, at 7 p.m. on Wednesday, February 25, 2009.

We hope to see you there! Until then, if you are intrigued and want to know more, see www.transitiontowns.org.

A prophet is without honor is his own land

It's striking how often the old Biblical saying is true. There's another old saying, about "the fish can't see the water" -- meaning that the water is just "the world" to the fish, and that being surrounded by something can have the odd result of making it invisible. But, sometimes, some odd fish have a mutation or brain warp that makes them able to see the water, even as they swim along with us. This makes them very unpopular generally, these prophets without honor.

James Howard Kunstler is one such. His weekly blog is especially relevant to Salem this week. Excerpts for those who don't go read the whole thing:

Poverty of Imagination

Venturing out each day into this land of strip malls, freeways, office parks, and McHousing pods, one can't help but be impressed at how America looks the same as it did a few years ago, while seemingly overnight we have become another country. All the old mechanisms that enabled our way of life are broken, especially endless revolving credit, at every level, from household to business to the banks to the US Treasury.

Peak energy has combined with the diminishing returns of over-investments in complexity to pull the "kill switch" on our vaunted "way of life" -- the set of arrangements that we won't apologize for or negotiate. So, the big question before the nation is: do we try to re-start the whole smoking, creaking hopeless, futureless machine? Or do we start behaving differently?

The attempted re-start of revolving debt consumerism is an exercise in futility. We've reached the limit of being able to create additional debt at any level without causing further damage, additional distortions, and new perversities of economy (and of society, too). We can't raise credit card ceilings for people with no ability make monthly payments. We can't promote more mortgages for people with no income. We can't crank up a home-building industry with our massive inventory of unsold, and over-priced houses built in the wrong places. We can't ramp back up the blue light special shopping fiesta. We can't return to the heyday of Happy Motoring, no matter how many bridges we fix or how many additional ring highways we build around our already-overblown and over-sprawled metroplexes. Mostly, we can't return to the now-complete "growth" cycle of "economic expansion." We're done with all that. History is done with our doing that, for now. . . .

. . . Mr. Obama is not the only one, of course, who is invoking the quest for renewed "growth." This is a tragic error in collective thinking. What we really face is a comprehensive contraction in our activities, especially the scale of our activities, and the pressing need to readjust the systems of everyday life to a level of decreased complexity.

For instance, the myth that we can become "energy independent and yet remain car-dependent is absurd. In terms of liquid fuels, we're simply trapped. We import two-thirds of the oil we use and there is absolutely no chance that drill-drill-drilling (or any other scheme) will change that. The public and our leaders can not face the reality of this. The great wish for "alternative" liquid fuels (bio fuels, algae excreta) will never be anything more than a wish at the scales required, and the parallel wish to keep all our cars running by other means -- hydrogen fuel cells, electric motors -- is equally idle and foolish. We cannot face the mandate of reality, which is to do everything possible to make our living places walkable, and connect them with public transit. The stimulus bills in congress clearly illustrate our failure to understand the situation.

The attempt to restart "consumerism" will be equally disappointing. It was a manifestation of the short peak energy decades of history, and now that we're past peak energy, it's over. That seventy percent of the economy is over, especially the part that allowed people to buy stuff with no money. From now on people will have to buy stuff with money they earn and save, and they will be buying a lot less stuff. For a while, a lot of stuff will circulate through the yard sales and Craigslist, and some resourceful people will get busy fixing broken stuff that still has value. But the other infrastructure of shopping is toast, especially the malls, the strip malls, the real estate investment trusts that own it all, many of the banks that lent money to the REITs, the chain-stores and chain eateries, of course, and, alas, the non-chain mom-and-pop boutiques in these highway-oriented venues.

. . . We seem to be learning a new and interesting lesson: that even a team that promises change is actually petrified of too much change, especially change that they can't really control.

The argument about "change" during the election was sufficiently vague that no one was really challenged to articulate a future that wasn't, materially, more-of-the-same. . . . and that has all led to a very dead end in a dark place.

If this nation wants to survive without an intense political convulsion, there's a lot we can do, but none of it is being voiced in any corner of Washington at this time. We have to get off of petro-agriculture and grow our food locally, at a smaller scale, with more people working on it and fewer machines. This is an enormous project, which implies change in everything from property allocation to farming methods to new social relations. But if we don't focus on it right away, a lot of Americans will end up starving, and rather soon. We have to rebuild the railroad system in the US, and electrify it, and make it every bit as good as the system we once had that was the envy of the world. If we don't get started on this right away, we're screwed. We will have tremendous trouble moving people and goods around this continent-sized nation. We have to reactivate our small towns and cities because the metroplexes are going to fail at their current scale of operation. We have to prepare for manufacturing at a much smaller (and local) scale than the scale represented by General Motors.

The political theater of the moment in Washington is not focused on any of this, but on the illusion that we can find new ways of keeping the old ways going. . . .

Saturday, February 7, 2009

Terrifying on so many levels

There's a frighteningly bad article in the printed Salem.MomsLikeMe (SMLM) magazine for February 2009 --- can't find it posted online.

The premise and title of the article is "Is TV Good for Kids?" and the subhead says "The latest research may surprise you." The big "surprise" lead is that two economists from the U. of Chicago School of Business (are you starting to get the picture here?) claim to find "strong evidence against the view that childhood television viewing harms the cognitive or educational development of preschoolers."

The authors of the study, said to have been published in the Quarterly Journal of Economics in 2008, supposedly "analyzed the test scores of nearly 300,000 kids in grades 6, 9, and 12 in 1965." The story in SMLM says that "Contrary to popular belief there wasn't any difference in the test scores of kids who watched more TV---or kids who watched less." The story claims that "In fact, the kids who watched more TV did better on standardized tests than those who didn't."

Ask a stupid question . . .

So this is what's being sold as evidence that TV isn't as bad as you think: if you park your kid in front of the box for 28 hours a week (the story's reported average child viewing figure) you can expect the kid to perform better on tests that are themselves of dubious validity and that are subject to withering criticisms from people who actually have a greater knowledge of child development than, oh, say two economists.

This same shoddy story (later on, the writer goes on to suggest that watching a certain PBS show made kids better able to "identify lower and upper case numbers [sic] than the control group") goes on to conclude with the completely unsourced, passive-voice assertion that "the PBS shows are considered so educationally sound that many teachers and home-school parents use them as teaching tools."

It's hard to know how a story like this gets planted into a publication like SMLM. Is it a press release that wound up in an editor's hands, who farmed it to a stringer, saying "Here's a peg for a story, why don't you write that up?" Or does the Gannett media empire truly think that this single study rebuts the mountains of evidence that TV is terribly destructive, changing the very structure of young peoples' minds?

This is taken from the website for Marie Winn's outstanding book, " The Plug-In Drug:"

The Plug-In Drug
25th Anniversary Edition

Synopsis

How does the passive act of watching television and other electronic media -- regardless of their content -- affect a developing child's relationship to the real world? Focusing on this crucial question, Marie Winn takes a compelling look at television's impact on children and the family. Winn's classic study has been extensively updated to address the new media landscape, including new sections on: computers, video games, the VCR, the V-Chip and other control devices, TV for babies, television and physical health. Winn shows examples of how parents lose control of their children's TV watching. The book's major purpose is to help families regain control of this powerful medium.

"Declining SATs" and "The Good-Enough Family"

Two excerpts from the 25th Anniversary Edition

Mystery of the Declining SATs

There is an old, unsolved mystery involving scores on the SATs, those tests of verbal and mathematical abilities that high school students must take to be accepted into most colleges. In the mid 1960’s the average scores on the verbal part of the SATs began an almost 20 year decline. In a range from 200 to 800 points, the average scores went from 478 in 1964 to 424 in 1980– a drop of 54 points. At the beginning of the 1980’s the scores began to level off, and have stayed within five points of 424 to this day.

What brought about this troubling decline? Why did it begin just when it did? People have been trying to find the answer to these questions for years. Yet no one seems to have pursued a related question that may offer a clue to the mystery: What caused the decline to end around 1980, with no significant decreases or increases after that? Juxtaposing the SAT scores of high school students during the last 40 or so years with some statistics about TV ownership and viewing times during those years, may help to answer all three of these questions.

In 1977, when the scores had almost reached their nadir, a panel commissioned by the College Board concluded that a major factor for the lower scores was the greater diversity of students taking the test – more minority students, some of them not native speakers of English, were now striving to get into college.] Yet the great increase in minority test-takers cannot be the explanation: the verbal scores of white, middle-class, native-speaking students had declined along with everyone else’s scores.

Various other explanations have been offered for the decline. A Cornell sociologist blamed it on the dumbing down of text books. He showed that latter-day sixth-grade texts are on the same level of difficulty as 4th grade McGuffey readers were in 1896 and pointed out that the decline began when the first wave of Baby Boomers, who had used those simplified text books, sat down at the SAT test tables. But he didn’t explain why the decline suddenly ended around 1980, though the same texts remained in the classrooms.

Others have suggested less effective teaching in the schools. Yet that wouldn’t explain why the decline has been greater in verbal skills than in math skills. And even if it turned out that only reading and language arts teaching had fallen off, while good teaching, for some reason, had managed to prevail for math, it still would not explain why the decline leveled out after a number of years.

How about television’s arrival in American homes as a primary cause? The timing is right. The first generation of children who had watched television during a significant part of their childhood, sat down to take its first college boards during the mid-1960’s, just as the decline began.

The fact that the verbal scores went down far more than the math scores lends support to the theory that TV was a causal factor. As Chapter 7 argues, extensive television viewing effects young children’s verbal development more than the development of their visual or spatial abilities. And as the previous section indicates, numerous studies have shown a strong negative association between television viewing and school performance. Reading achievement seems especially vulnerable to the effects of excessive television viewing and reading, it is universally acknowledged, is the key to academic success.

If indeed television viewing adversely affects children’s verbal abilities, then one may begin to explain the steady decline of verbal SAT scores starting in the mid-sixties by the steady increase in television ownership year after year from 1950 on. In 1950 fewer than 8% of American families owned TV sets. By 1954 more than half had televisions. By 1957, 78% of families were set owners, and by 1964, almost everyone -- 92%. of families had become TV viewers. The saturation point had just about been reached, though set ownership would slowly inch up another 4% during the next 20 years.

The mid-sixties, when the decline in scores began, was when the first children who had spent their formative years watching TV–those who were about three in 1950—turned 16 or 17 and took the test. Every year through the sixties and seventies, thanks to the increase in set ownership, a larger cohort of TV watchers took their SATs, and every year, the scores went down, down, down: from 478 in 1964 to 471 in 1966 to 460 in 1970 to 445 in 1973 to 434 in 1975 to 429 in 1978 and finally to 424 in 1980. That’s when the scores stopped going down. Why? At least partly because the saturation point had been reached around 1964. So sixteen years later the scores bottomed out. They have stayed at about the same level ever since.

Set ownership is not the only factor. More important is the amount of time spent watching. Another explanation for the steady, two-decade-long decline lies in the steady increase in children’s viewing time from 1950 through the 1970’s. The students who scored 478 in 1964 had watched 0 hours during their formative years, having been born in ‘47 or ’48, before TV became a mass medium. They probably didn’t acquire a time-consuming TV habit, until they were in high school, with a lot of reading and other verbal experience under their belts by the time they took their SATs.

After 1950 children’s average weekly television-viewing time began to rise, year after year. One study indicates that first- and sixth-graders (the two groups chosen for that particular study) were watching about an hour more television daily in 1970 than in 1959, and that Sunday viewing had increased by more than two and a half hours for the sixth-graders.8 The rise in viewing time eventually leveled off – after all there wasn’t that much more time left in the day, after school work, chores, sports and a few other activities that continued to compete with television for children's time. And the decline leveled off as well.

Another suggestive pattern emerges when noting the decrease is characterized by changes in the two extremes—fewer high scores and more low scores—rather than an across-the-board slippage.

Why the decrease in high scores? In 1959 the brightest sixth-graders were found to be among the heaviest users of television while the brightest high school students were found to be lighter viewers and heavier readers than their less gifted classmates. Anxious parents were reassured that television would have little effect on their children’s destinies, since by tenth grade the bright students turned to books just as they had always done.

But by 1970 this comforting trend had been reversed. The Surgeon General’s report showed that now more of the brighter students in tenth grade were heavy users of television than heavy users of books.10Television now reigned supreme in the lives of the group that had once contained the most avid readers—the most gifted students. As these brightest students watched more TV, their college board scores began to decline. Year after year the number of students scoring in the 600 to 800 range on the Verbal SATs dropped steadily, going from 112,000 in 1972, to fewer than 72,000 in 1990, a decrease of more than a third.

Why had the scores of those best and brightest test-takers taken a dive? It seems likely that before they succumbed to television, their verbal and analytic abilities had been sharpened and deepened by extensive reading. As more of these students replaced books with TV viewing, their scores decreased dramatically.

[Note: A long footnote clarifying changes in the way SAT scores are published today, as well as others giving sources of all statistics in this section are given on pp. 321-322 of the new edition]

The Good-Enough Family
[a new preface spelling out the book's purpose]

All families are not created equal. Some seem to be spectacularly successful. Others are a total mess. And then somewhere between the heights and depths are most of the rest of us.

The Spectaculars are so comfortably in charge of their children’s lives that they don’t need to establish rules about television watching. Their family life is rich and satisfying. Television never seems to take precedence over human activities—conversations, games, leisurely meals, reading aloud—in this somewhat unreal family.

The troubled families at the other extreme are all too real: parents who don’t get along or who’ve split up, who are abusive, addicted to alcohol or drugs, who don’t understand the first thing about children and their needs, who are too immature, too disturbed, too self-absorbed to place any great value on family life, and whose children, consequently, are likely to have more than the usual share of difficulties. Though excessive television watching is a common symptom of family pathology, these families are not likely to find that watching less TV is going to make much difference in their lives. They have too many other basic problems to deal with first.

The British psychiatrist D. W. Winnicott once coined the phrase “good-enough mother” to describe a parent who may have considerable problems raising her children but still does a good enough job to avoid causing any serious psychological damage.

Similarly one might define a “good-enough family” as one neither so perfect as to be invulnerable to normal human weaknesses nor so precariously balanced as to be swamped by its troubles. Most American families, I believe, fall into this category. The good-enough family may have its shortcomings; nevertheless the parents care deeply about their children’s well-being and strive to make their family life as good as possible. They are the ones for whom television control may make a crucial difference.

In the wide range of good-enough families some might be called “better-than-good-enough,” indeed, approaching the borders of “spectacular” territory. Others are “barely-getting-by,” rapidly heading for deep trouble. For many families, how they control television may decisively influence whether they go in one direction or another.

The idea prevails, perhaps because of this book’s negative title, that my answer to parents’ problems with television is to promote its elimination altogether. But that has never been my purpose. I know that my most persuasive arguments will never make television go away, nor would I want it to. I am not an enemy of the medium nor do I believe it is devoid of value.

My aim, instead, is to promote a new way of thinking about TV. I believe that if parents understand the medium’s power and look squarely at the ways it affects their children and their family life, they can begin to take the necessary steps to deal with television successfully. To help parents and families with this task is the purpose of this book.

Quotes from reviews of The Plug-In Drug:

From Library Journal:
"After 25 years, Winn (Children Without Childhood) has completely revised and updated her landmark study of the influence of television on children and family life by incorporating findings based on recent research and investigating the impact of the home computer, the VCR, and the video game terminal. She has also shifted the focus from the TV programs children watch to the negative effects of television on children's play, imagination, and school achievement. Although Winn pinpoints many key shortcomings of television, this study is not argumentative; Winn instead aims to stress the quality of family life without television, to show educators and parents how to control the medium, and to offer practical suggestions on how to improve family life not dependent on television. This refreshingly candid and inviting study is highly recommended for both public and academic libraries."

From Jim Trelease, author of The Read-Aloud Handbook:
"No one has captured the devastating effects of television the way Marie Winn has. The latest research coupled with candid and inspiring correspondence from actual families make this the best edition yet."

From The Christian Science Monitor:
"If you have children who watch television, you owe it to yourself -- and them -- to read this book."
The worst part of this story is that it appears to be aimed at encouraging Moms to feel good about having their kids watch TV by pointing to performance on standardized tests --- using one destructive habit to justify another. If the story's figures are accurate -- if the average child really is watching TV 28 hours a week, then do we really have to wonder why so many kids today are being drugged and diagnosed with psychological ailments like ADHD, learning disabilities, and oppositional disorders?

28 hours a week is a serious part-time job load for a high-school senior. Given that high school seniors are probably not the heaviest viewers, that means that kids much younger are consuming frightening amounts of TV, essentially being raised by corporations.

If this is true in Salem---and we have no reason to think we're exempt from this trend--then it not only explains much, but it's also terrifying. As our economy struggles and times get much harder in the years to come, there are going to be some seriously pissed-off young people, because they're going to be "unemployed," just like so many adults. These kids will lose the one job they've ever had---watching televised nonsense---and suddenly they will have to contribute something to their own keep, despite having no skills other than snark and anticipating the plot lines of recycled TV formulas.

Friday, February 6, 2009

Help Salem Downtown merchants -- give 'em an earful

Go Downtown, the local Salem downtown merchants group, is offering a survey to get feedback on what you want - so tell 'em!