Be careful about citing the voice of the people ...

Can we please have a rest from people chanting that we have to drill for oil offshore the US because some percentage of people (usually an inflated number, the result of a biased poll question along the lines of "Would you rather freeze in the dark on the way to the bank to withdraw your last dime because of energy costs or would you rather drill offshore using a magical new process that never spills a single drop and leaves teeth whiter and breath fresher") demand drilling?

There is probably nothing that a greater percentage of Americans would like to see more than the heads of oil executives on poles outside gas stations, but ideas like that show that vox populi isn't always to be trusted, is it?

Can we learn from the experience of others

The comment below was posted to The Oil Drum (see link in the column to
the right).

When thinking about the proposal to dump nearly $5 million into
expanding Salem's airport (including making the runway longer), you have
to wonder whether Salem's leadership able to learn from the experience
of others — or are we condemned to repeat others' mistakes, even after
explicit warning?

==========
A brief note on demand destruction and infrastructure....

Our family flew from Tokyo/Narita Airport for summer vacation on July
27. The airport has always been PACKED at this time, peak travel season
(schools get out around July 21 here).

This summer there were no long lines, no crowds, no waiting to get into
restaurants. Lots of room to move, actually pleasant in a way.

Then I started thinking about the huge amounts of cement poured, now
investments with no or low returns, what happens when the thing gets
really empty, then abandoned? It is huge and it is not the only one.

I read that airline ticket sales to Europe and N. America from Japan
were down 40% this summer because of the fuel prices making tickets too
expensive. At the airport, that 40% quote felt like it was on target.

Two Birds with One Stone

Man, it just doesn't get any better than this---if Salem sticks to its guns and refuses to allow a for-profit helicopter school to make life miserable for the airport neighbors, we also stand to win out over the insane desire to throw away millions of dollars in a futile attempt to turn a small, close in, airport into a destination for scheduled airliners.

This is like being told that, if you refuse to allow a motorcycle gang to rev their Harleys outside your window all day and night, you can also save a bundle on your taxes.

Was there ever a way to kill two uglier birds with one well-aimed stone?

Quick, let's finance some big unnecessary projects before the banks disappear!

As the road and sprawl lobby salivates over the big pie up in Portland ($4.2B, yes, that's a B, as in "beeeelions and beeeeelions"), there's a tidy little piece of sprawl pie being floated here down here in Salem too -- The Willamette River Crossing, estimated at a juicy $660M ... not bad. The construction and consulting firms hoping this gem will pay for a few BMWs are probably getting a little nervous about how closely this thing is being sliced, what with banks about to drop like flies, having only started to unravel from the real estate fiasco (which this bridge is partly about propping up--helping sprawl developers who keep pushing houses further and further out). If they can't get this thing funded soon, it will probably never, ever happen.

Oregon fighting climate change (someone tell ODOT!)

The more Oregon takes positions like this, the harder it is going to be to justify letting ODOT pretend that it's still 1960 and that the solution to all problems is more of the same (more pavement, more lanes, and more bridges).

"Mobility Standards" -- the genetic code of the traffic planner determined to destroy livable places

One of the smartest things said yet in the discussion of the idea for a third Willamette River Bridge comes from Doug Parrow, a local bicycle activist and member of the "Willamette River Crossing Task Force."

The Oregon Transportation (read Highway) Plan was showing its age on the day it was adopted. While the plan lays out a number of sound-good, multi-modal concepts, implementation of the plan has fundamentally been limited to widening roads. The state Highway Department (I deliberately decline to refer to them as Transportation oriented) has employed the one tool that they consider legitimate--the construction of more lanes and new roads--in pursuit of the mobility standard described in the plan. When these "improvements" are plopped down in an urban environment, all other modes of transportation inevitably suffer. In particular, pedestrians must deal with wider streets and the impossibility of safely crossing at unsignalized intersections. Bicyclists must cross multiple turn lanes if they intend to continue straight through an intersection.

The Willamette River Crossing study serves as a sterling example. I serve on the task force that is providing advice to the effort. During the two years since the inception of the study, the task force has been fed a variety of big bridge configurations that are designed to achieve the mobility standard based on 20-year projections of motor vehicle traffic. According to the planning team, the only way to accomplish this is through the construction of a huge bridge at an enormous cost that would connect to city streets using a maze of freeway style ramps. Only recently, with preparation of a draft-EIS already underway, has the project team begun to develop a low-build, multi-modal alternative. It is hard to imagine that, at this point in the process, the alternative will be anything more than a straw man. Further, even the "no-build" alternative that is in play contemplates that significant "improvements" will be made under the Salem TSP. These "improvements" involve widening roads and the construction of dedicated turn lanes that will inevitably damage walking and bicycling.

The public subsidy that is provided to motor vehicles is enormous. The gas tax would have to be increased to more than $3.50 per gallon to cover the full costs to the highway system of the use of motor vehicles. Local governments have tried to make up the difference using property taxes and system develop charges, neither of which recognize the transportation mode choices that the people paying these taxes make, or send the appropriate price signal to those people. Given the subsidy, some form of rationing is necessary to compensate for the imbalance of supply and demand. A bsent the political willingness to adopt appropriate transportation pricing strategies, we have effectively defaulted to using congestion as the rationing mechanism.

It will be interesting to see how congestion pricing and tolls play at the legislature. To what extent will the public, in particular the trucking industry, be able and willing to substantially increase the amount they pay to use the road system? The percentage of household income spent on transportation has been historically been increasing. It can't continue to do so indefinitely. We are already seeing significant changes in the transportation choices that people are making as a result of the increases in fuel costs to date. We haven't really experienced the effects of peak oil and global warming on prices yet. Given recent legislative history, I suspect that the current path of shifting transportation funding away from a mileage/use based approach toward general taxation will prevail, to the detriment of the planning and delivery of an efficient transportation system.

Certainly the Governor's announced plans are encouraging. However, the way in which the plans are implemented by the agencies is what really matters and the state Highway Department is continuing to redraw 4-lane lines using 6-lane pens in a fruitless and doomed effort to achieve the elusive mobility standard.

Doug Parrow

The waiting calamity

(h/t to Jerry Schneider for pointing this out)

Clip from EV World, written by editor Bill Moore, who attended.
---------------------------

Meeting of the Minds

The 2008 Meeting of the Minds conference wrapped up today here in Portland, Oregon with a sobering assessment of the road head by Toyota's self-proclaimed "grumpy old man," Bill Reinert.

Bill and his colleagues at Toyota -- and their contracted consultants -- have been crunching the numbers on oil depletion, unconventional liquid fuels and water availability and reached a consensus that the planet is going to hit "liquid peak" by around 2018.

What is "liquid peak," you ask?

That's when every conceivable form of liquid fuel -- from petroleum to coal-to-liquid to biofuels -- when produced flat-out without any concern or regard for their environmental impact simply can't keep up with growing global demand. In effect, the planet will have run into an energy wall where current technology and policy simply won't cut it any longer. We either turn to other energy sources or we stop growing.

Reinert's graph-laden, lunch-time talk -- "warming" might be a more appropriate term -- put in starker terms what other expert panelists and presenters were saying during the two-day conclave at the Portland Art Museum: that time is of the essence, dramatic changes are needed, requiring enormous political courage, and the world ahead is going to be radically different from the one in which we presently find ourselves.

For example, <http://scrippsnews.ucsd.edu/Releases/?releaseID=876>Tim Barnett from the Scripts Institute forecast during the opening day's luncheon keynote speech a 50% chance that Lake Mead will be dry by as early as 2021. As a consequence, much of the American Southwest is going to see a migration towards water, meaning north -- or vast projects to move water from the north. Life in cities like Las Vegas and Phoenix could well be untenable, certainly growth will be brought to a standstill. Without the water behind Lake Mead, there will be no electric power generation, effecting millions of homes and businesses in the Southwest.

Attendees heard numerous references to "peak oil", as well as climate change and the impact these and population growth are having our communities. Increasingly, policy makers, architects, planners and developers are starting to awaken to reality of what has been for many of them just so much theory.

This year, the question of logistics began to be raised. While most of us tend to think in terms of the challenge of switching over to better, cleaner, more efficient cars, they will, in fact, be moot points if there is no sustainable system in place to move the goods that feed the people, much less build the cars. If we can't quickly evolve a more energy efficient logistics system, cities themselves will become unsustainable.

The upside of this is that the people who can make a difference at the grassroots level are starting to recognize the challenges ahead -- hopefully in time. While the federal government seems hopelessly mired in a past that no longer can be maintained, local, county and state/provincial governments are starting to openly discuss these critical issues. Granted, not all of them are and at times, it seems most still haven't a clue there's a tsunami headed our way.

Planning and tax policy are calcified and risk averse at a time when what we need is unparalleled agility and nimbleness that can take risks, quickly learn from mistakes, and adapt.

If there is a model city for that approach, it is Portland. It's far from perfect and nowhere near sustainable, but it's the best model we have, and I am glad my wife and I got to spend a few days exploring it before, during and after the conference.

Watch for future MP3 and video from the Meeting of the Minds conference, especially Bill Reinert's remarkably candid talk.

Volt Death Watch

Anyone who knows Bill, realizes he's not shy about expressing his opinion, be it good or ill. Apparently, his mother never taught him the axion, "If you can't say something nice about someone, don't say anything at all."

But I like that quality in Bill. We need guys like him to keep us all honest.

So, here are four of his juicer, off-the-cuff remarks to me during the conference.

* Forget trying to get people to charge their cars only during night-time off-peak hours. It isn't going to work; not being able to charge during the day limits the usefulness of the vehicle. In Reinert's pragmatic -- law of thermodynamics world -- utilities are going to have to realize this and adapt, which in my mind means solar and lots of it.

* Even more controversially, he told me there's a "death watch" taking place within Toyota on the Telsa Whitestar, Fisker Karma and... here it comes... Chevy Volt. He -- and apparently his colleagues -- don't think any of them will be built in any significant numbers. The batteries are just too costly. The Whitestar is particularly vulnerable, he explained to me, because Tesla is seeking to double the duty demands on the battery while halving the price of the car. That's a "company killer" in his view.

* He informed me that "you're on the right track" on the lithium supply question, adding that Toyota is working air battery chemistries, including zinc-air -- which William Tahil has been touting for sometime now.

* Finally, he smiled when I talked about the alleged spy photos of the new Prius that are emerging. He said they look a lot like the current Prius because they are the current Prius. They are test mules for the new Prius, nothing more.

A telling omission

There's a link on the City website that says "Fly Salem" -- not too far below another link that takes you to a pdf for the press release announcing the demise of scheduled air service in Salem.

The odd thing is that the "Fly Salem" link takes you to the Chamber of Commerce website (http://www.salemchamber.org/flysalem/) with no disclaimer about "you are now leaving the city website."

In other words, the common conception that Salem officials don't do a good job staying staying at arm's length from the Chamber might just have a little basis in fact.

Update: The funny part is at the bottom of the "Fly Salem" promo page:

Before you book your next flight, check Salem first. Just go to delta.com and search 'SLE'. You might be surprised.

Free parking and a freshly remodeled terminal await you with easy access from I-5 to Mission Street and 25th in Salem.

Yes, many people are surprised when the airlines go under these days, stranding thousands of people.

Also -- if we just remodeled the terminal, then for pete's sakes why would the airport authority propose yet MORE remodeling for the terminal now that Delta is leaving? Just asking.

Welcome Salem Monthly readers

We're lucky to have an (apparently) thriving alt-monthly in Salem, in these days of one newspaper towns and total media consolidation.

If you're here because you saw this story, welcome (and welcome if you didn't see it too).

A few other items in this month's Salem Monthly also merit notice:

1) The Carbon Offsets story: actually, despite the best of intentions, carbon offsets do not work and, in fact, only persuade those with means that they can continue to pump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere while outsourcing (and, often, offshoring) the difficult task of trying to get our climate problems under control.

The best thing you can do with your sense of urgency -- or guilt -- about your effect on the climate is to reduce that effect. Reduce your consumption. Start walking, biking, and using transit. Move so that your most frequent trips are on foot. Eat less meat. Insulate your house or apartment. Stuff like that. See "The Consumer Guide to Effective Environmental Choices" at that link or at a local bookstore (e.g., The Book Bin) for the details.

And, if you still have money left over after the solar hot water heater goes in, then don't offset carbon, RETIRE IT.

2. The "Sprint Boat" story -- obscene.

Truly a pitiful last gasp of the cheap energy party, a Roman "bread and circuses" thing. Those engines pump an incredible volume of greenhouse gas, ozone, and other pollutants into the air and for what -- to demonstrate the manhood of the drivers. Wouldn't kayaking or logrolling or some other testosterone-fueled but non-motorized activity be just as good at letting guys get their competitive jones on? Do we really have to have jet boats to appreciate the skills of the drivers and let them compete for status, in the same way the Roman chariot drivers did?

As long as those things are running, oil (and, hence, gasoline) prices aren't high enough.

3. The "Oil Prices to Cause Winter Heating Woes" story.

This is what our future looks like, with the end of cheap energy causing a permanent change in our relationship to the physical world and the end to the "cheap energy party." Too bad we have to rely on an alt-monthly to be warning folks about this--preparing for Peak Oil and for the changes needed to STOP the increase in greenhouse gas levels and then to reverse those levels, bringing them down to 350 ppm is urgent. If you need some help understanding this, contact the folks at Oregon Peaceworks and ask for a presentation of their "The 5% Solution to the Climate Crisis" talk. The planet you save may be your own.

4. Finally, in case the story in the Salem Monthly left you wanting more, here's the complete text of the interview that served as the basis for the piece:

What is the purpose of the LOVESalem blog? Can you explain the name a bit?

It's an acronym -- Living Our Values Environmentally in Salem (LOVESalem) -- because Salem can be a fantastic place to live if we stop trying to become Anywhere USA and instead start recognizing the great assets that we have here, assets that position us beautifully to live through "The Long Emergency" period that we're entering in about as good shape as anyplace. It also points out to people that we really do need to love Salem and stop letting developers and city officials turn it into another Sprawlville, yet another place dominated by "Carhead" thinking. In other words, as it says, we need to Oregon-ize in Salem so that we put people first, not cars.

What's the main reason behind wanting to stay anonymous? (I'll need to explain to our readers why we aren't using your name.)

I work in a job where challenging "Carhead" is not very welcome, although I only deal with the blog from home, on my own time. The kinds of radical changes that we are going to be experiencing here soon (and already are experiencing) are going to make some people very, very unhappy. There are a lot of people who get quite angry when their paradigms are abruptly changed on them, and the end of the cheap energy party and the need to take really super-aggressive action to deal with the climate crisis is going to hit these people like a 2x4 to the skull, and that generates a lot of anger --- anger that often gets expressed at the first person that they can find whom they identify as causing the problem, even if it's only to write something in a blog. By identifying the problems with business-as-usual and the fantasies of substitutes (business-as-usual with some other kind of fuel), you paint a big target on your self.

By blogging behind a functional name -- Walker -- I remove the personality aspect of things. People are free to show up and dispute the ideas on the site. I moderate the comments only to weed out the trash---people are free to say I'm wrong if they provide an argument or a link to something that sheds more light on it. I just don't want it to devolve into the kind of junk that so many websites do, flaming and attacks on people rather than looking at the problems we're all going to face together, like it or not.

What can a regular citizen do to prevent the "Sprawl Machine"?

The first thing is to become aware -- consciousness of it.

Notice how much of this beautiful area -- in the No. 1 agriculture county in Oregon, a bountiful state, is devoted to the care, feeding, and storage of autos.

Notice the city council, already cutting the bookmobile and the library computer lab hours and other services and amenities, in a city where the buses don't run on Sunday, [and] is dreaming of a $670 million dollar godzilla-size third bridge over the Willamette so that people who live far from their jobs can drive even more.

Notice that the same city is proposing to drop $4.75 million on upgrading the runway and the baggage services at the airport even after we've just got word that the only scheduled air service is stopping soon.

Notice that the city totally dropped the ball on sidewalks, dumping them back in the laps of the homeowners as if they weren't an important piece of our transportation network. Ask yourself why the fronting property owner is expected to maintain the sidewalk but not the roadway.

The next thing is to join your neighborhood association and also groups like 1,000 Friends of Oregon and Friends of Marion County so that you have a voice. That's the start.

Why do you think that Salem is behind Lincoln City and Corvallis and other OR cities in developing earth-friendly practices?

I can't say I know for sure. I've got some theories:

I think a lot of it is that Salem has set itself up to be the city that lots of people don't care about because they don't live here. An astonishing number of people drive here from Portland, Corvallis, and Eugene (and Stayton, and Independence, and Silverton) and work for the state. They see Salem as a parking lot -- a place to blow through as fast as possible in their car to get to work and to get home. The only thing they want from Salem is free parking.

Every city in America has problems getting its planning and permitting departments out from under the thumb of the sprawl lobby --- the builders and the developers and folks who want to pour concrete over everything. So Salem is not unique in suffering from pro-sprawl and carhead thinking. But we've definitely got a terrible case of it.

And Salem's connection to Willamette is about zero, from what I can tell. Universities normally function as places that provide the host city with a base of people who are willing to think independently and consider the future, and who are scientifically minded --- the kind of people you need if you're going to anticipate future problems and avoid them. Somehow we don't seem to get that benefit from Willamette. And I would guess that very few Willamette Students plan to stay, so we lose that fountain of youthful enthusiasm and energy; these aren't kids who want to make Salem a cool place, they're more worried about their internships elsewhere and getting jobs after they leave.

Q: There's a lot of information on the blog about the Salem airport. What are your thoughts on the airport expansion continuing, despite Delta pulling out in October?

A: The airport expansion at this point in time -- when airlines are dropping like flies -- is the perfect symbol of how Salem officials see the city and how they fail to give even a moment's thought to the fundamental physical realities that will become increasingly insistent and present in our lives. In City Hall, there's a "consensus trance" that $4 gas is temporary thing. In a way that's true, but it's because we'll soon look back fondly at $4 gas.

The airlines are just about dead. The odds of Salem getting scheduled service again are so low as to be laughable. But the city plans to plow ahead with an expansion, trying to palm it off as OK because most of the dollars won't be from the city --- as if wasting state and federal money is OK. It's utter nonsense, and very revealing of how city officials and especially transportation officials are in denial about our energy and climate problems.

The people of Salem would get more benefit from that $4.75 million if they converted it to $1 bills and took them up to Brooks in and burned them in the waste-to-energy plant. That's how stupid the expansion is.

Who knew? Walkable (older) neighborhoods = less obesity

Sometimes the obvious has to be pointed out: designing a city around cars is bad for our health.