Gambling with the Planet: Stiglitz

Word:

Before the Great Recession, America’s economic gurus - from the head of the Federal Reserve to the titans of finance - boasted that we had learned to master risk. "Innovative" financial instruments such as derivatives and credit-default swaps enabled the distribution of risk throughout the economy. We now know that they deluded not only the rest of society, but even themselves.

These wizards of finance, it turned out, didn’t understand the intricacies of risk, let alone the dangers posed by "fat-tail distributions"- a statistical term for rare events with huge consequences, sometimes called "black swans". Events that were supposed to happen once in a century - or even once in the lifetime of the universe - seemed to happen every ten years. Worse, not only was the frequency of these events vastly underestimated; so was the astronomical damage they would cause - something like the meltdowns that keep dogging the nuclear industry.

Research in economics and psychology helps us understand why we do such a bad job in managing these risks. We have little empirical basis for judging rare events, so it is difficult to arrive at good estimates. In such circumstances, more than wishful thinking can come into play: we might have few incentives to think hard at all. On the contrary, when others bear the costs of mistakes, the incentives favour self-delusion. A system that socialises losses and privatises gains is doomed to mismanage risk. . . .

More like this, please! Bringing Ed out of 1011 and into 2011

"Food for Fines" is a fine idea

Do "penne"ance for your overdue-book sins by bringing pasta and other sturdy, long-keeping comestibles to the Salem Public Library between April 10 and 17, and help respond to hunger in Salem!

It’s a once-in-every-52-weeks opportunity to clear your library card and help a worthy cause, all in one stroke. During the week of April 10-17 only, both Salem Public Library locations will forgive fines for customers who bring in donations of non-perishable food items and other household necessities for donati on to Marion-Polk Food Share.

This does not apply to lost book charges, rental fees, video/DVD fees, collection fees, or fee cards.

A $1 credit will be applied for canned items 12 ounces or larger. Donors are particularly encouraged to consider these high-need items:

• Soup (canned or dry)
• Canned fruit
• Chili
  
• Canned vegetables
• Cereal
  
• Pasta sauce
• Tuna
  
• Pasta products (20+ ounces)
• Beans (canned or dry) • Rice (20+ ounces)
• Juice (canned or bottled)

A greater credit of $3-5 will be given for these larger high-need items:

• Laundry detergent; • Laundry softener; • Cooking oil; Peanut butter (8+ ounces)

To be used, items must be factory-sealed, commercially processed, dent and rust free, and bear a future expiration date. Top Ramen products cannot be accepted. More information is available from Circulation at 503-588-6090

Thin gruel indeed . . .

The corporate litterers have apparently terrified Salem's City Hall with the empty threat of a suit against a strong ordinance to allow you to opt-out of having them dump junk flyers and other trash on you.

The threat is hollow because a content-neutral time, place, and manner restriction on leaving such trash is completely constitutional and would be upheld -- and would pave the way for helping Salem regain control of its politics by showing that we the people do have the right not to be forced to clean up trash that some advertiser decides to dump on us without our consent.

So, this Monday night, head for City Hall and ask for a real junk ad litter ordinance that works just like the "Do Not Call" list (that the telemarketing criminals also threatened to sue over).

(a) Ordinance Bill No. 15-11 Relating to Solid Waste Management; Adding SRC 47.231, and Amending SRC 47.245 (CD)

Recommended Action: Staff recommends the Unsolicited Written Materials ordinance be considered at a public hearing on April 25, 2011.

Early Planning for Father's Day 2011: Capital City Garden and Coop Tour

Image via Wikipedia

The great non-profit group, Friends of Salem Saturday Market, is partnering with Chickens in the Yard, another Salem non-profit group, to present the first

Capital City Coop & Garden Tour

in June. This will be a self-guided tour of both chicken coops and fabulous gardens.

Would you like to be a participating garden in this year's tour and show off some of your hard work? Or, perhaps you know someone else who might be willing to open their garden, as well. We are looking for gardens that can act as inspiration for other gardeners - they're big, beautiful, diverse, unusual, efficient, or just really well done.

To participate, you would need to be willing to open your garden on Sunday, June 19 (Father's Day), from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. There should be two people available: one to greet visitors and show them where to go (outside the house only -- you do not have to open their house as well), and one to be at the garden giving a tour.

Proceeds from ticket sales will go toward C.I.T.Y.'s "Habitat for Hens" program to assist low-income families in setting up a coop and keeping chickens at their home.

To nominate your own or someone else's garden or coop as a tour stop, email Friends of Salem Saturday Market soon!

Does auto exhaust cause brain damage? Study suggests it might

Image by Simone Ramella via FlickrThis is an example of where the precautionary principle would be helpful -- there's some evidence of the possibility of serious harm from an industrial activity, but what will happen now is that it will take a long time for the evidence to solidify, particularly in light of the typical denial-evasion-obfuscation-retaliation cycle from the affected intere$t$.

What ought to happen, in these legacy cases where the activity got underway well before the science of risk assessment developed, is that the developing mosaic of suggestive studies should cause the onus to shift onto the activity ... in other words, instead of having to prove to the satisfaction of the affected industry that there is a sufficient quantum of proof to justify a serious response (which typically only happens after decades of the profit-making companies fighting against science like trapped rats), the industry ought to now have the burden of producing, within say five years, solid and valid disconfirming evidence or face a regulatory action aimed at eliminating the chance that the hazard is there.

Donate your books now, get great bargains soon

The Friends of Salem Public Library Spring Book Sale is back, and better than ever, because every year there are more and more of us who have spent a year buying and enjoying good books that now need to go to a good home -- and provide itemizers with a tax deduction on the way, while raising money for an outstanding cause, the programs of the Salem Public Library.

So schedule your spring cleaning now -- go through all your shelves and find those great books that you enjoyed but won't read again, and send them on their way to someone else's shelves by bringing them to the Friends Bookstore inside the main library. You can get a tax receipt, and you'll be helping the Friends raise money to support key programs at the most important but underbudgeted resource in Salem -- our library.

Fun with brain wiring

Fukashima got you down? The best remedy is to learn to prepare

Image via WikipediaSalem has a pretty active CERT program: Community Emergency Response Teams. This training is worthwhile for anyone who is concerned that between nature and human error, there's just no kind of disaster that we can't experience. Heck, we're even starting to see funnel clouds here in the Valley, so we're not even safe from tornadoes. And you know, I hope, that we will definitely be in the zone of effects from the huge offshore earthquake that's due anytime . . .

As long as you don't go all survivalist, there's simply no downside to learning about emergency preparedness, which is necessarily a community function.

Tonight: Learning the "reuse" part of "reduce, reuse, recycle"

Image via WikipediaThe great folks at Straub Environmental Learning Center are offering a helpful class, the kind that is much better done in a group than from solo research:

Monday, April 4, 2011, 6:30-8:00pm
Sustainability Workshop
Getting the Most of Your Household Wares
Straub Environmental Learning Center

This workshop will provide attendees with easy access to resources that make it easy to reduce, re-purpose, and recycle items in their homes. By reusing materials already in the home instead of throwing them out, people can have a large impact on improving environmental sustainability and reducing risks to public health, all while saving money and resources.

Workshops are free, but registration is required due to limited space. RSVP to Alexandra at 503-391-4145 or email fselc@fselc.org.

All workshops will be held at Straub Environmental Learning Center from 6:30-8:00 pm, unless otherwise noted. For a schedule of the entire series, click here.