Good rundown on our peak oil predicament

Follow the bouncing economy -- oil prices drop, demand rises, prices spike, sending demand down with prices to follow, and so on. Note that the "good times" get less good each iteration of the cycle. Image via Wikipedia

Just like the Butterscotch Man couldn't run till he got warm and could only get warm by running, we're in a fix -- now that the easy oil is gone, the cost of getting the remaining (deeper, more distant, more sour) oil translates into a price that the economy can't sustain.

Excellent writeup on this in the mainstream press here.

Speaking of Limits to Growth

A LOVESalem foreign correspondent (from Bellingham, WA) writes:

With one minor exception, this well-written article is my public presentation in a nutshell. We cannot burn carbon we don't have, and carbon we cannot burn cannot contribute to global climate change. Furthermore, stimulus to make tons of green widgets at a time of declining energy supplies cannot succeed unless we deliberately reduce energy use (and economic activity) elsewhere in the 'economy.' Bad things are already happening in the world because of human-induced climate change, and I don't doubt we will burn as much of the remaining carbon as we're able, thereby causing even worse effects as we continue our grand climate experiment. However, some of the wilder climate possibilities constantly referred to in Copenhagen would require continued exponential growth (hence energy use) for the remainder of this century - and that is impossible. As Chris points out, creating a totally new energy infrastructure has always taken 2-3 decades - and that was in times of economic growth. The infamous 2005 Hirsch report emphasized that unfortunate constraint and warned of impending economic disaster because of the (then) upcoming oil peak; five years have now passed and we've basically made zero progress in creating any new energy sources and had one large economic hiccup. We've also bumped up against one of the limits to growth (oil supply), and it was unpleasant; soon our 'recovery' will bump into it again (if that recovery is actually real).

The one minor exception occurs in the very last part of the article, where Chris implies a need to reduce population. If he had read Catton's books "Overshoot" and "Bottleneck" he'd be able to complete the argument - that peak everything includes food and people (but apparently not fantasy). In the end, nature has always had her way, and always will. What we can do is guide as many toward that bottleneck as we're able to influence, and try to re-learn the ways of quasi-sustainable production of food and other stuff so that some humans actually pass through Catton's bottleneck.

Coincidentally, in a few hours I'll be attending a presentation continuing a topic from 2 months ago put on by a group calling itself "Great Decisions" - on the subject of the world food crisis. Fred Berman, a local "small" farmer and eatery owner, is presenting. - tooj

I'm not as optimistic as he is about economic collapse preventing us from the worst scenarios of runaway climate change --- recall that, because coal is so filthy, the UK is still the nation responsible for the largest share of the carbon emissions that are destabilizing our climate, even though the size of the UK was never large relative to the size of the US economy, much less the global economy of the late 20th and early 21st Centuries.

In other words, there are those who say economic collapse will save us from the worst because of reduced carbon emissions. I think it more likely that the dominant paradigm (that it's possible to have this thing called an "economy" that can exist and be healthy in a world of collapsing ecosystems) will continue long enough to burn enough coal that we'll see emissions go up even as economic activity goes down. If that's the case ... I'm reminded of Khrushchev's warning that, in the wake of atomic warfare, "the living will envy the dead."

UPDATE: I skipped a step -- remember, essentially all the IPCC projections IGNORE feedbacks from melting tundra and offshore methane clathrates, both of which are huge, huge, huge stockpiles of a much more powerful greenhouse gas than CO2 is. We're already seeing arctic melting in Alaska, Siberia etc., and we're finding more and more methane bubbles all the time. As the atmosphere warms, the tundra will be releasing ever-greater volumes of methane into the atmosphere, accelerating the process. Once we warm the shallow oceans off the continental shelves, where the methane trapped in ice crystals is stored, then it's all bets are off for climate, as we have no solid way to know how many other feedback loops we'll trigger, including (in addition to those above), forest fires -- huge carbon reservoirs "drained to the atmosphere" in days, and droughts destroying tropical forests -- releasing all the trapped carbon in the soils.

Don't forget tonight, 1/19, at Salem Public Library at 6:30 p.m.

A talk by Greg Craven, creator of "The Most Terrifying Video You'll Ever See" and the author of the excellent book "What's The Worst That Could Happen: A rational response to the climate change debate."

What higher ed will look like in a post-carbon world: The Communiversity

The "education bubble" -- characterized by the sprawling mismatch between the costs and benefits of higher education -- is going to pop because the only way the bubble can stay inflated is by piggybacking on other bubbles, the kind that have been popping left and right lately, and that seem highly unlikely to be able to reinflate now that we are comprehensively broke and without the cheap energy bonanza that, for the last two centuries, made "growth" nearly effortless.

UPDATE: Moody's doesn't like the prospects for higher ed either.

To a great extent, an abundance of wealth--the kind that supports institutions of higher ed--is nothing but a marker for the presence of an abundance of cheap energy. In fact, one would not be far wrong to state that money is little more than an accounting trick for tracking society's total throughput of energy. Only problem is that money, the accounting trick, appears to remain even after the energy has been converted from a useful, high-quality, low-entropy form into waste heat or waste materials. Thus, as we've ridden up the peak energy mountain, we've created a bigger and bigger mountain of money to account for all that energy. Now that the net energy available for use is declining faster and faster, the money is becoming, shall we say, dubious. Sure we'd all like some to use right away, but the days of intelligent people telling kids to assume tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars of debt for "an education" are rapidly drawing to a close.

It's interesting to reflect on how we'll recover from our fling with mass higher education -- here's one prospect for the future of higher education for a post-carbon world.

An intriguing experiment in community-oriented higher education is coming to Sandpoint, Idaho: it’s called the Communiversity. It’s not a college. It’s a cross-generational, interdisciplinary learning center.

From the Bonner County Daily Bee:

SANDPOINT — No one is using qualifying phrases like “instead of” or “apart from.” To the contrary, members of the local business, education and government communities are careful to note that they believe a proposed new plan for higher education will complement, not compete with, the Wild Rose Foundation’s pledge to build a University of Idaho campus here.

But with that plan on the back burner for more than two years now, excitement has shifted to a wholly different kind of university concept.

“It’s called a ‘Communiversity,’” said Connie Kimble, who oversees the individualized occupational training for the work-based learning program at Sandpoint High School. “It’s the same idea we’ve been talking about for years.

“The Wild Rose Foundation wanted to build a campus, but got stopped because of economic reasons,” she added. “In that case, a single entity would have driven things, but under this model, the community drives it.”

Kimble first heard about the Communiversity concept while attending an education seminar in Atlanta. The first such institution, she learned, got underway in 2005 when a Georgia firm called the Warren Featherbone Company donated 127,000 square feet of unused manufacturing space on seven acres of land to create a community learning center in Gainesville, Geo.

By the following year, the City of Gainesville had partnered with surrounding communities, as well as nearby Brenau University, the Lanier Technical College and the Georgia Power Company, to bring multiple financial and educational resources together under the single umbrella of the Featherbone Communiversity. Along with degree-oriented classes, the campus offered myriad continuing education and special interest courses, coupled with a business incubator that helped carry entrepreneurial dreams forward and an interactive children’s “Imaginarium” designed to spark a lifelong passion for learning.

Kimble returned from Atlanta convinced that she had seen the direction for higher education in her own community.

Quick, easy, humane mousetrap

A vicious killing was recently reported close to LOVESalem HQ -- of an errant mouse who found its way into the house of a person who very strongly preferred otherwise.

Well, timely this then. Click the illustration to go to the writeup.

To be ignorant of history is to remain forever childlike

Image via Wikipedia

A LOVESalem field correspondent sends news of this delightful citizen-powered community building project:

Local historian Virginia Green and the Salem Heritage Network (SHN, pronounced "Shine") are proud to present "Shine on Salem 150." This project will highlight 150 years of Salem government, culminating on Oct. 22, 2010: the 150th anniversary of Salem's city charter.

Join us each day on the SHN blog as we highlight one year in Salem history. Each day, we will also provide a different event, meeting, visit or other activity for Salem residents to learn and participate in their city.

Visit the Salem Heritage Network blog every day starting Monday, January 22, to learn new tidbits about the City of Salem and find interesting things to do: http://salem-heritage-network.blogspot.com/

A press release follows below. For more information, please contact Virginia Green at vagreen9@gmail.com or (503) 581-6221.

Thanks!
Stephanie Matlock Allen
Salem Heritage Network
samatlock@gmail.com

**********
SHINE on Salem 150

Beginning on January 22, 2010. Salem Heritage Network will begin highlighting each of the 150 years of Salem’s municipal history, one year each day, continuing for 150 days.

Each day’s feature will be headed by the year, followed by a notation of two or three important world events of that year.

Next will be an illustration of a local event in that year. The black and white historical photographs are from the Oregon Historical Photograph Collections of the Salem Public Library, administered by volunteers led by Don Christensen. Tom Green, Jr. took the contemporary color photographs.

The historical event will be described in a brief paragraph.

The feature will conclude with the location of the photograph and an invitation to visit the present-day site or to attend a civic activity associated with this event.

Since this is an internet blog, there is opportunity for comments by any viewer. It is hoped that this will become a community effort, with many new events and personalities added.

The purpose of this feature is not only to recall local historical events, but also to introduce the city government itself. Several Departments, as well as Boards and Commissions, have offered information about their founding and their activities.

Both our cultural heritage and the present organization of our city government are very much part of our daily lives. This online feature can suggest ways to participate in our current community services and help direct the course of our city’s future ~ perhaps for the next 150 years.

Some history

Salem began in 1842 as a classroom, the Oregon Institute, now Willamette University. The pioneering Methodist missionaries founded the school. In that year their settlement near Wheatland was moved to Mill Creek.

In 1844, the church discontinued the mission and appointed William Willson as agent to sell off lots to "worthy individuals" in order to raise money for the Institute and attract settlers to the new town, which they named Salem. Willson drew up the first plat of Salem, covering an area thirteen blocks by five blocks, bounded by the Willamette River and Mission, Church, and Division streets. The Marion County Clerk recorded the plat in 1850.

Salem became the capital of the Oregon Territory in 1851. The Oregon Territory became a state in 1859. The process of Salem’s incorporation as a city began in 1857, but was a controversial issue, and the charter was not granted until October 22, 1860, 150 years ago. This is the date we are celebrating on the website as the feature “SHINE on Salem 150.”

Bloomington shows how it's done: Preparing for the Post-Oil World

Bloomington, Indiana's peak oil task force report starts with this great attention getting page:

oil is everywhere

roofing paper ● heart valves ● asphalt ● crayons ● parachutes
telephones ● dishwashing liquid ● transparent tape ● antiseptics
purses ● deodorant ● panty hose ● air conditioners ● shower
curtains ● shoes ● volleyballs ● electrician's tape ● floor wax
lipstick ● synthetic clothing ● coal extraction and processing
bubble gum ● running shoes ● car bodies ● tires ● house paint
hair dryers ● pens ● ammonia ● eyeglasses ● contacts ● insect
repellent ● fertilizers ● hair coloring ●movie film ● ice chests
loudspeakers ● basketballs ● footballs, ● combs/brushes
linoleum ● fishing rods ● rubber boots ● water pipes ● motorcycle
helmets ● fishing lures ● petroleum jelly ● lip balm
antihistamines ● golf balls ● dice ● insulation ● trash bags
rubber cement ● cold cream ● umbrellas ● inks of all types ● paint
brushes ● hearing aids ● compact discs ● mops ● bandages
artificial turf ● cameras ● glue ● shoe polish ● caulking ● tape
recorders ● stereos ● plywood ● adhesives ● toilet seats ● car
batteries ● candles ● refrigerator seals ● carpet ● cortisone
vaporizers ● solvents ● nail polish ● denture adhesives ● balloons
boats ● dresses ● non-cotton shirts ● perfumes ● toothpaste
plastic forks ● hair curlers ● plastic cups ● electric blankets ● oil
filters ● floor wax ● Ping-Pong paddles ● bras ● water skis
upholstery ● chewing gum ● thermos bottles ● plastic chairs
plastic wrap ● rubber bands ● computers ● gasoline ● diesel fuel
kerosene heating oil ● motor oil ● jet fuel ● marine diesel and butane.

Thanks to Goal One Coalition blog for pointing it out -- as GOC says, the Bloomington folks did a fantastic job:

The Task Force report – Redefining Prosperity: Energy Descent and Community Resilience - calls for a reduction in community oil consumption by 5% per year in an effort to realize a 50 percent decrease in consumption in just 14 years. The targeted rate of decrease in oil consumption is along the lines laid out by the oil depletion protocol.

Suggested strategies for achieving the reduced fuel consumption goals include:

• Explore new energy sources, greater efficiencies and conservation opportunities for the following energy-intensive municipal services: water and wastewater treatment; law enforcement and fire protection; heating and cooling municipal buildings; and trash removal and recycling. Immediate attention should be given to off-grid water production to meet minimum community needs.
  
  
• Promote economic relocalization. Our community’s reliance on a steady supply of inexpensive goods from as far as halfway around the world makes us vulnerable to a decline in inexpensive oil and/or shortages. Producing and processing more goods within the community fosters greater security in a post-peak world while strengthening the local economy.
  
  
• Intensify the City’s emerging focus on form-based development, so that residents can easily live within walking distance of daily needs, such as grocery stores, schools and pharmacies.
  
  
• Increase home energy conservation and aim to retrofit 5 percent of housing per year.
  
  
• Establish community cooperative rideshare programs.
  
  
• Advocate for greater local, state and federal funding for public transit.
  
  
• Accelerate local food production by training more urban farmers and removing legal, institutional and cultural barriers to farming within the city.
  
  
• Plant edible landscapes throughout the city.

The Task Force’s vision is for a city where “most residents live within walking distance of daily needs; most of the food required to feed residents is grown within Monroe County; residents can easily and conveniently get where they need to go on bike, foot or public transit; most of the community’s housing stock is retrofit for energy efficiency; and local government provides high-quality services to its residents while using less fossil fuel energy.”

(h/t to Goal One)

Great idea!

Until the cars stop running, we'll have to share most roads with them. Here's a very nice urban detail that will make that wait much nicer.

(h/t Progressive Review)

Lest we forget: The Klan in Oregon

Image by Getty Images via Daylife

As part of the week-long Willamette University MLK Celebration 2010, Salem Public Library will host a screening of The Ku Klux Klan in Oregon 1920-1923. The newest release of local documentarian Thomas Coulter, the film details the meteoric rise of Klan activity in communities around Oregon in the 1920s.

7 p.m. Wednesday, January 20
Loucks Auditorium at Salem Public Library, 585 Liberty St. SE
Free and open to the public

Following the screening, Coulter will be joined by Willamette University Professor of English and Film Ken Nolley, local historian John Ritter and community member Willie Richardson for a panel discussion and question-and-answer session with the audience.

The evening is sponsored by the City of Salem Human Rights & Relations Advisory Commission, and the Willamette University‘s MLK Celebration 2010 Committee and the College of Law. More information about the event is available from the City of Salem’s Human Rights & Relations Office at 503-540-2371.

More information about all the activities planned from January 18-28 in honor of the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. is available online at www.willamette.edu/go/mlk or from Willamette’s Office of Multicultural Affairs at 503-370-6265.

Another Capitol Idea: Madison, Wis. leads the way on reusing schools

Wow.

A project that will transform a vacant school building on Madison’s Southside into a state-of-the art urban agriculture and community center campus.

The exterior areas of the site will include the following components:

Community Gardens serving the local neighborhood

Education Gardens serving as an outdoor classroom for students from around Dane County

Edible Landscape including perennials such as nut and fruit trees and berries

Innovative Storm Water Management that views stormwater as a resource

Rain Gardens for infiltration of stormwater

Permeable Surfaces for parking and walkways to increase stormwater infiltration