Saturday, June 7, 2008

They Can't Say They Haven't Been Warned

The letter below was just delivered to the
  • Mayor of Salem
  • eight Salem City Council members
  • two Salem officials (Community Development Director, Public Works Director)
  • three Marion County Commissioners
  • two Mid-Willamette Valley Council of Government Staffers (the Executive Director and the Transportation Planning chief), and
  • the editorial board of the local newspaper
With each letter came a free copy of the Post Carbon Institute book "Post Carbon Cities."
====================================================

June 6, 2008

Dear Salem/Marion County policymakers and influential people:

As an engineer who has studied climate change and energy issues intensively, I am quite concerned about our area’s unpreparedness for several significant emerging challenges, namely the global peak in oil extraction and the need for what many people would today call unthinkably aggressive actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Every day, careful scientists produce more evidence that we have little time left to prepare for a new world. In this world, energy, instead of being cheap and abundant, will continue to become and remain ever more costly and even scarce at times. Climate disruption will compel us to see our atmosphere as the very limited and irreplaceable resource that it is and not an infinite sewer that can absorb whatever we care to (or carelessly) emit.

Given foresight, inspired leadership, and great effort, Salem and Marion County can adapt to the new reality. However, like fire insurance, this assurance cannot be obtained once the calamity is clearly here. We have only a limited and fast-dwindling time to act: to inform ourselves, to educate the community, and to develop an action plan for responding.

You no doubt have heard about the Portland Peak Oil Task Force. You may not know that Bellingham, Washington has improved on that model, commissioning the first joint city/county task force to begin planning for peak oil and the climate crisis. It is time for Salem and Marion County to do the same. I offer you this book, Post Carbon Cities: Planning for energy and climate uncertainty, as an introduction to the problems. I hope you will read it and that you will take the time to look into the many additional resources highlighted. At the least, I ask you to read the executive summary and pass the book on to your staff members and advisors.

I would be delighted to speak with you about this matter, privately or in public work sessions, and I hope you will set aside time to consider these important issues as soon as possible. We need to start a serious community conversation on this subject, and we have very little time to lose. I would like to do everything possible to assist you in helping the people in Salem and Marion County prepare for these daunting challenges.

Sincerely,

"Reinventing Collapse" author's perceptive comments

The invaluable EnergyBulletin.net has a nice piece by Dmitry Orlov, author of "Reinventing Collapse," an important book for our future. A choice excerpt:

"You compare the US to the Soviet Union, but didn't the Soviet Union fail because of its backward Communist system? We have the free market, we can innovate and solve our problems in ways that they just couldn't even imagine!"

"The central planning system in the Soviet Union was quite inflexible and inefficient, and caused hoarding and black market trading. It directly allocated resources to things like central heating for entire neighborhoods, public transportation and government services. Market psychology had nothing to do with it: these were all physical flows of energy. Our system is certainly better during normal times, but when key resources become scarce, it suddenly becomes much worse: people are priced out of the markets for the things they need to survive, hoarding and profiteering become the norm, municipalities are driven into bankruptcy while oil companies make record profits and find nothing better to do with them than buy back their own stock, and so forth."

"But still, can't we innovate our way out of this? I was shopping for a new car yesterday, and there are all kinds of new hybrids and electric cars appearing on the market... when there is a crisis, the free market system responds, and gives us products that solve the problem!"


"The idea that the problem of too many cars and too much car dependence can be solved by making more cars is preposterous. What makes the problem insolvable is that Americans have been conditioned to treat access to private automobile as a birthright, and taking away their cars is about as advisable as trying to take away their guns. The most commonsense thing to do would be to ban the manufacture, import, and sale of new vehicles, except for some specific fleet vehicles used for public services, as was done during World War II. But this problem will work itself out to some extent: it takes a lot of energy to make a car, and new cars are still affordable only because the new oil prices haven't percolated through the entire economy yet."

"Some people are concerned about the falling dollar and what the Federal Reserve is doing. What do you make of their policies?"

"They are making a strenuous effort to make insolvent financial institutions look solvent by lending them bushels of newly printed dollars. The effect is ever more US dollars chasing after same or smaller quantities of key commodities, such as oil and food, causing huge run-ups in prices. This is what the start of hyperinflation looks like. Eventually, this will ruin our ability to continue borrowing and financing our huge trade and budget deficits. It will also cut off our access to key imports, such as two-thirds of the oil we use, because nobody will want to continue stockpiling our worthless dollars. If that happens, the US economy will go into a state of severe shock.

"The economists have suddenly been thrust into a world they can't understand. They are used to thinking of energy in terms of money, and in terms of driving economic growth. They can't possibly be expected to turn around and learn to think of money in terms of energy, and of driving a gradual powering-down of the economy in ways that will provide the population with the essentials and avoid needless suffering. What it means to the rest of us is that we should stop looking to the economists for answers. There would be too much retraining involved to make them into competent practitioners of this new discipline."

Friday, June 6, 2008

A great blog to get to know

Low Tech Magazine

Sample:

Excerpt from an article on why electric (wireless) cars have no future:


So, then, we have green cars, right? Alas, no. The electric car has a serious environmental drawback compared to a car running on a combustion engine: the battery. The ‘fuel tank’ of an electric car consists of hundreds of connected batteries, each of them comparable to the battery of a mobile phone (the Tesla Roadster, an electric sports car, has more than 6,000 of them). After some years, they all have to be replaced, and already before that time there is a reduction in storage capacity.

The environmental profit gained by a higher efficiency (or by green electricity) will be negated completely by the massive amount of batteries required. Batteries have to be manufactured, and that process is very energy-intensive and environmentally harmful. Batteries also have to be discarded or recycled - both processes again require extra energy and inflict environmental harm.

A history of what we've lost

Great two-part series in the Oregonian on what we've lost -- a rational transportation system that let people get around without having to own a car.

Part 1

Part 2

Kunstler's "Farewell to Suburbia"

James Howard Kunstler is an incisive observer who, years ago, started warning that our devotion to carburban design was going to come to a bad end (See The Geography of Nowhere). A couple of years ago he wrote a terrific book, The Long Emergency, expanding on the themes of TGON and tying into the emerging recognition that we are at an energy transition point (called "peak oil," after the shape of a plot of oil supply vs. time) that is going to be most wrenching to those places that have gone the deepest into the madness of converting themselves into carburbia -- the sprawlscape that defines much of Salem (and especially West Salem) today.

The effort to build a third Willamette Bridge crossing is probably the last gasp of the disease, as carburbia is expiring before our very eyes. A culture built on cheap energy -- literally built around the premise that, in your every decision, you would not have to think much about the cost of energy -- cannot long survive when energy costs start to approach its true value.

The essential question is whether we blow two-thirds of a billion dollars on a bridge that would be like the great pyramids of Egypt: monuments to the egos of the builders and their waning ability to extract the necessary wealth to do so from the masses. Or can we be foresighted enough to recognize a tsunami before it hits?

Anyway, good article from Kunstler in an Ottawa paper:


Farewell to suburbia

Car-dependent communities, the greatest misallocation of resources in history, have no future -- but that's just one of the shocks the global oil crisis is going to bring

James Howard Kunstler
Citizen Special

Saturday, April 19, 2008

Huge efforts are being made, and hopes invested in, what are called 'alternative fuels' in a desperate effort to keep all the cars running by means other than gasoline, writes James Howard Kunstler.
CREDIT: Peter J. Thompson, Reuters
Huge efforts are being made, and hopes invested in, what are called 'alternative fuels' in a desperate effort to keep all the cars running by means other than gasoline, writes James Howard Kunstler.

The fog of cluelessness that hangs over North America about the gathering global oil crisis and its ramifications seems to thicken by the hour. One reason for all the fog is that the key part of the story is so broadly misunderstood -- namely, that it's not about running out of oil; it's about how the complex systems we depend on for everyday life begin to destabilize as the global demand for oil starts to outstrip the supply.

By "complex systems" I mean very precisely:

- the way we produce and distribute our food;

- the way we do commerce and manufacturing;

- the way we move people and things around the landscape;

- the way we accumulate and deploy capital investment;

- the way we get and allocate energy resources (i.e. the oil markets themselves);

- plus many other activities such as education, medicine, governance, and so on.

All these systems are visibly wobbling these days, and mutually reinforcing each other's instabilities, multiplying and accelerating our problems. For instance, our ventures in bio-fuels are affecting worldwide grain prices so severely that food riots have broken out in several poor countries. Whoops! Bitten by unintended consequences.

The capital markets have been faltering conspicuously for half a year now and the failures occurring there are not so mysterious if you understand that a major implication of the oil story is the prospect of industrial economies being unable to generate the kind of regular "growth" that we've become used to. Hence, a loss of faith infects the common investment "instruments" that represent the conventional idea of growth. Under these conditions stocks, bonds, and currencies themselves lose legitimacy and a desperation sets in among the financial community to find some other way to make money.

It is no wonder, then, in the face of this crisis of confidence, that sharp minds on Wall Street turned to the creation of unconventional new "engineered" securities -- based on algorithms and equations incomprehensible to non-insiders -- and that many of these new paper investment vehicles, such as mortgage-backed-securities, have turned out to be badly engineered, shall we say. These failures, in turn, amplify the instability in the financial markets and make things worse, with banks now fearful of each other's holdings and the regular operations of credit falling into a state of paralysis -- with further ramifications for the mortgage markets, for the house-builders, the suppliers of lumber and sheet-rock, the furniture-sellers, the strip-mall builders, and a long chain of other participants in the so-called "regular" economy.

That economy is not so regular anymore in light of the oil predicament.

Look at it from another angle. The big builders and the realtors seem to think that we've entered the lower arc of a cycle that will turn up again sooner or later. I think they are mistaken. This is not a dip in the real estate cycle, it is the end of the entire suburban program in North America as we have known it.

The new reality of the oil situation informs us that we will not have the energy to run this automobile-dependent infrastructure for daily life. The material assets of suburbia are destined to lose both their monetary value and their sheer usefulness as 100-kilometre daily commutes become economically insupportable, not to mention the cost of heating 3,000-square-foot houses.

We're going to discover the hard way that the project of suburbia represents the greatest misallocation of resources in the history of the world. We will have to occupy the landscape differently in the years ahead. Yet, the enormous sunk costs of suburbia are very likely to provoke a furious campaign to sustain the manifestly unsustainable. The political implications of that are pretty unappetizing.

As in our living arrangements, so in our manner of moving around the landscape, a.k.a. transportation. Start by recognizing that the entire system of Happy Motoring is unlikely to continue as we have known it. This should be taken for granted by anyone seriously reflecting on our future. Unfortunately, the wish to rescue this system trumps the desperate need for us to make other arrangements. Thus huge efforts are being made, and hopes invested in, what are called "alternative fuels" -- the desperate wish to keep running all the cars by other means than gasoline.

I think the stark truth of the matter is that no combination of alternative fuels will allow us to run the North American highway network, Wal-Mart, and Walt Disney World -- or even a substantial fraction of those things. Because of our sunk costs in Happy Motoring, we will surely try everything -- solar, wind, nuclear, bio-fuels, used french-fry oil -- and we will surely be disappointed by what they can actually do for us. The problem is that they don't scale.

Indeed, the whole question of scale is another key element of the larger story. I would state categorically that the energy predicament implies we will have to downscale all of the systems of daily life named above, and that we will also have to live far more locally and self-sufficiently than has been the case in recent history.

The notion that the global economy is a permanent condition of life -- famously touted by Thomas Friedman in his book, The World Is Flat -- will prove to be erroneous. The world will get rounder as our energy diet ramps down. Globalism will prove to have been a set of transient economic relations that came about because of special circumstances during a particular period of history: five decades of cheap, abundant oil, and relative peace between the powerful nations. The first of those two conditions is now palpably over, and the second may fade as the great nations commence a contest over the remaining oil resources in the world, which is sure to affect our economic relations.

The public discussion in both the United States and Canada about how we will manage this epochal transition out of the oil age ranges from incoherent to delusional these days. For instance, among the "other arrangements" we must make, which I alluded to, is the desperate need to revive the North American passenger rail system.

In case you haven't noticed, the airlines are dying. In mid-April alone, four smaller airlines declared bankruptcy: Frontier, ATA, Aloha, and Skybus. I happened to be in Minneapolis the other day when Northwest and Delta announced their planned merger. Minneapolis happens to be the headquarters of Northwest, and all the local chatter concerned fear that Delta would cut service to small cities all over the upper Midwest. Of course, this geographically large region has almost no railroad service (besides the daily Amtrak run through Minneapolis to Seattle).

There is no project we could take up right away that would have a greater impact on our oil use than reviving the passenger rail system. The infrastructure is already in place, rusting in the rain, waiting to be fixed. It would employ scores of thousands of people at good jobs, at every level. It would benefit people in all ranks of society. It would take enormous pressure off the airlines in serving short-hop routes that are much better allocated to rail. Most of all, it's a doable project that would build our confidence to address the many other systems that will require re-scaling and reform in the years ahead. The fact that there is almost zero political discussion about restoring the passenger rail system shows how un-serious we are.

Right now, with transport, finance, and food production in disarray, we have entered the period of history that I call "the long emergency." Despite the techno-triumphalism rampant among our governing classes, we are not likely to see (nor are we entitled to) an orderly transition from where we are now to where we are heading. We are unlikely, for instance, to "come up with" a miracle rescue remedy for motor transport. We will have to confront the sheer loss of capital that is at the heart of the financial fiasco rather than continue to play a shell game with loans from central banks to cover up for failed securities. The crisis in grain prices is an early warning that our current methods of food production are hostage to the petroleum markets.

In the absence of a coherent political discussion, we are fated to a merely reactive response to the linked failures of all these systems. One product of the long emergency will be the creation of a new social phenomenon called "the former middle class." They will be a large group of people who have lost jobs, vocations, and incomes. Quite a few are just now in the process of losing their homes. They will be full of anger and grievance and they will demand political action to return their "entitlements" to well-paid jobs, comfortable houses, and limitless mobility.

There is no telling how they will behave when they discover that those things are gone forever. We are not doing ourselves a favour by ignoring these issues.

James Howard Kunstler is the author of The Long Emergency, and a new novel of the post-oil future, World Made By Hand, both from The Atlantic Monthly Press. He lives in upstate New York.

Destroying Minto to Serve Commuters?

One of the best---if not THE best parts of Salem is Minto Island, a wonderful sanctuary ... or, according to this letter to the Salem paper from a reader who lives in Dallas, Oregon, it's merely a convenient platform for yet MORE concrete designed to serve cars:

Address traffic woes with third bridge
April 18, 2008

I am amazed by the persistent plans to build a new bridge in north Salem to connect to some part of Wallace Road NW and its congestion.
Indeed, that sort of traffic could be handled by a morning and evening one-way transit over a modification of the existing railroad bridge.

Consideration should be given to a bridge crossing onto Minto Island from the area of Mission Street SE. Such a bridge system would then connect with Highway 22 in the vicinity of Capital Manor or any suitable place before the river turns to the south.

Such a plan would cost more but would address the real problem of reducing traffic over the existing bridges by commercial traffic in and out of Polk County and the increasing volume of travel between I-5 and Highway 22 going to the coast.

The Mission Street plan would also accommodate a portion of the present commute traffic and open up the flow over the existing bridges.

Sleazy Public Process Lesson 101: Never give the suckers an even break

Now we really see the Salem River Crossing revealed for what it is --- a scaled-up version of a bad used car sales lot, where the hustle is intended to get the mark (that's us, folks) on the hook before he can even realize he's been had.

The first lesson they teach salesmen in boiler room operations and payday loan parlors is "Never ask the mark a question that has the wrong answer as a possible response." Thus, you never get asked "Would you like to finance that here?" Heck no, it's always "How long would you like to finance that for?"

So too with the Salem River Crossing -- they've come up with a spiffy new "funding tool" designed to get you to "interact" with it around the idea of figuring out how to pay for this boondoggle --- leaping right over the "Do you even need one of these?" or "What else could be done with all that money?" or "Does a new auto bridge conflict with the need to dramatically reduce vehicle miles traveled?" questions. Here's the latest "important update" on the hustle:

Important updates on the Salem River Crossing Project
In early 2008, the range of alternatives recommended by the Task Force and Oversight Team was modified to respond to advice from the Federal Highway Administration and the Oregon Department of Justice. View the revised alternatives now.

The project is also continuing to work on how to pay for the alternatives. Check out the new Funding Tool to learn more about these different funding options then take a survey.


What a surprise! A hand-picked "task force" steered by a "steering committee" of public officials bent on destroying a low-income neighborhood in NE Salem in order to ease the daily life and the commute for the wealthy white zip code on the other side looked at alternatives and recommended a new bridge! Imagine that! Now the only step left if to somehow persuade the rubes not already being foreclosed from their homes that they should tax their property even more to pay for it --- because the people the new bridge is supposedly going to serve have made it clear that it's not worth more than a buck to them.

Same Sprawl Monster, Different City

Great website on the Columbia River boondoggle, the spiritual twin to the third bridge idea for Salem. Virtually every bit of this applies in Salem in exactly the same or only a slightly different way.

The Plan of Attack -- How the Sprawl Lobby Proposes to Overcome Common Sense

Here's the memo about the financing discussion you (nor any other member of the regular public) weren't invited to, although "business leaders" were:

Funding workshop summary

TO: Salem River Crossing Project Management Team
FROM: Kristin Hull, CH2M HILL
DATE: April 7, 2008 (REVISED)

Introduction

The Salem River Crossing Project hosted a workshop to consider potential local funding sources for the project on March 5, 2008. The workshop was attended by more than 50 local elected officials, business leaders, and senior-level staff from the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT), the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) and local jurisdictions. The workshop agenda included:

* Presentation on local funding options and considerations.
* Breakout groups to develop and discuss potential funding scenarios.
* Large group discussion of next steps to advance development of a local funding plan.

This memo provides a summary of the key themes that emerged during the small group work and large group discussion at the workshop.

Funding analysis tool

To support discussion at the workshop, CH2M HILL developed an Excel spreadsheet tool that allowed participants to test different tax and fee structures for funding of a new bridge. Participants were given a goal of raising $30 million each year, the annual debt service on bonds to support a theoretical $500 million bridge project. The $500 million cost was used as a placeholder for the cost of a the project since the project location and design, requirements for developing detailed cost estimates, and the amount of state and federal funding have not been determined.
The spreadsheet tool allowed participants to input amounts for the following potential local funding sources:

* Vehicle registration surcharge (Marion or Polk counties)
* Local gas tax (cities of Salem or Keizer, or Marion or Polk counties)
* Property tax (cities of Salem or Keizer, or Marion or Polk counties)
* Toll on new bridge
* Toll on existing and new bridges

Participants could enter a range of values for each tax or fee type, or geography to explore different ways the project might be funded. The 2012 annual total in the upper right portion of the input sheet indicated the surplus or deficit associated with each funding scenario.

Breakout groups

Participants were divided into six groups. Each group included a Project Management Team member who acted as the table’s scribe and facilitator. The goal of the breakout groups was for each group to develop one or more possible funding scenarios and to discuss the opportunities and challenges associated with each potential funding source. The breakout groups each shared one scenario and a summary of their discussion with the larger group.

Discussion summary

The breakout groups developed a range of funding scenarios that included different funding mechanisms. As part of the local funding scenario:

* All six groups identified a toll on both bridges, though the toll amount varied among groups.
* Four of the six groups identified a vehicle registration surcharge.
* Three of the six groups identified a local gas tax.
* Two of the six groups identified a property tax.

The large group discussed the key issues associated with each funding source. Some people noted that a property tax would be more progressive than other sources because it is keyed to property values and not a flat fee, and that a property tax would give people a voice in the decision about how to fund the bridge because it would require a vote. Some participants noted that a vehicle registration surcharge or fuel tax would unfairly tax low-income people. Other participants preferred vehicle registration surcharges and fuel taxes because those fees are directly related to transportation.

The group discussed how to involve the public in making decisions about funding and concluded that community members should have the opportunity to use the funding analysis tool to understand the funding choices and challenges. Some participants noted that it might be too early to ask the public to weigh in on funding choices since a bridge location has not been determined and detailed cost estimates are not available.

Many participants said that the community must be educated
[emphasis added] about the funding need and choices and why local funding sources are needed before they are asked to weigh in on a funding package. The group discussed the need for public opinion research on the acceptability of different funding sources and discussed the idea of an advisory question on a ballot during a regular election as a way to take the pulse of the community.

Group 1
Group 1 noted that they were not satisfied with any of the alternatives because they did not allow for asking West Salem, the part of the community that would benefit the most, to pay a larger share than the rest of the area. This group suggested that a Local Improvement District (LID) contribution from West Salem should be considered in conjunction with other sources. Group 1 noted that if a property tax in the cities of Salem and Keizer was part of the strategy that the taxing district should take in the entire urban growth boundary, not just each city’s limits. Group 1 also suggested that more distant jurisdictions that might benefit from a new bridge, such as Lincoln County, should contribute to funding the bridge.

Group 2
Group 2 identified a combination of a tiered property tax and tolls as the most equitable way to fund the new bridge. The tiered property tax would levy a higher tax rate on properties in the cities of Salem and Keizer and a lower rate on properties in Marion and Polk counties (outside the cities). Group 2 suggested charging a $0.75 toll per crossing, but exempting residents and businesses in Salem, Keizer, Marion County, and Polk County. [In other words, the people the third bridge -- the cross-river commuters -- would cater to would not pay any more than their neighbors who oppose the bridge entirely and refuse to use it. emphasis added.] Group 2 said that this type of system would ask both users and the area’s residents and businesses to help pay for the bridge. The group also noted that the public could easily understand how much they are paying to construct a new bridge.

Group 3
Group 3 identified a combination of sources including a fuel tax, vehicle registration surcharge, property tax, and toll to fund the bridge. This group noted that a property tax is likely to be the least popular part of this scenario since it is not related to transportation. [Amen -- although they forgot to note that it also requires people who are trying to avoid making climate change worse support a project that does exactly that. Emphasis added.] The group noted that it was important to consider sources beyond tolls because the bridge would benefit people and businesses beyond those who actually use the bridge and because it is important to have more than one source of revenue as a risk management measure. The group suggested variable tolling as a way to reduce the negative impact to downtown businesses. The group also noted that some state funding such as lottery bonds might be available to help fund the bridge and that it might make sense to consider a larger city/county transportation funding package that would pay for the bridge as well as other needed projects.

Group 4
Group 4 suggested a combination of tolls, fuel taxes in both counties and a vehicle registration surcharge to fund the bridge. The group suggested that any funding package should raise more money than is required for capital costs and create a funding stream for bridge maintenance. The group said that a property tax should not be used to fund the bridge because property taxes are needed to fund other important services, but that the City of Salem could look to urban renewal districts to fund some pieces of the project. The group noted that a $1 toll/per crossing would not be palatable to the public. [Emphasis added]

Group 5
Group 5 developed a scenario in which one-half of the costs would be paid by tolls and one-half of the costs would be paid by residents through a combination of fuel taxes and vehicle registration surcharges. The group noted that this scenario would be fair to both users and area residents and would have relatively low collection costs since the state already collects these taxes and could easily collect the surcharges in the identified jurisdictions. The group noted that property taxes should be reserved for other needs in the cities and counties that do not have other funding sources.

Group 6
Group 6 suggested a vehicle registration surcharge and tolls to fund the bridge. The group suggested that the toll vary by time of day, be different for the old and new bridges, and be reduced for residents of Marion and Polk counties. The group noted that fuel taxes are not equitable and are generally quite regressive. [Emphasis added] The group discussed how a local gas tax, as opposed to a statewide gas tax, could penalize gas station owners inside the taxing district by making their gas prices higher than stations outside the district. The group noted that, while tolls are fair because users pay for the new bridge, a funding package that includes other sources needs to be developed to reduce the burden on commuters. [! -- Emphasis added]

Next steps
The group directed staff to move forward with the following next steps:

* Develop a strategy about how best to engage community members in discussions about local funding sources for the project. Consider when and how public opinion research might be used to test acceptability of local funding options.
* Post funding analysis tool to the project web site to allow community members to explore funding issues.
* Use the analysis of local funding options that will be completed as part of the Draft Environmental Impact Statement as a basis for further funding discussions.

Why More AutoSprawl Infrastructure is NOT an Option

AMERICAN WEST WARMING FASTER THAN REST OF THE WORLD

TREE HUGGER A new report funded by the Natural Resources Defense Council has confirmed . . . that the U.S. West has been heating up much more rapidly than the rest of the world. Analyzing temperature data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for 11 states, the authors, part of the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization, recorded average temperature rises in the Colorado River Basin that were 2.2 degrees warmer than the historical average for the 20th century - or more than twice the global average rise for the same period. If these trends continue, that will spell especially bad news for southwestern cities, particularly those in Arizona and New Mexico, which have been growing at a fast clip and have already suffered through some of the region's worst droughts.

As study author Stephen Saunders points out, the droughts have dealt the region a heavy economic blow, depriving it of over $2.7 billion in crop revenues and revenues from recreational activities, such as fishing, hunting and skiing.