Just another day: Open season on bicyclists

Image by Salim Virji via Flickr

And uninsured bicyclists to boot. Another great example of why we need universal health care. This kid is probably in the top 0.01% for health -- until an inattentive driver just about kills him. He could easily have would up dead or with a serious brain injury. But even if he recovers fully, our "coverage" is for bicyclists to pass the hat . . .

Academy of Environmental Medicine warns against genetically tampered food

When did we sign up to be Monsanto's lab mice? Image via Wikipedia

Doctors Warn: Avoid Genetically Modified Food

On May 19^th, the American Academy of Environmental Medicine (AAEM) called on "Physicians to educate their patients, the medical community, and the public to avoid GM (genetically modified) foods when possible and provide educational materials concerning GM foods and health risks."[1] They called for a moratorium on GM foods, long-term independent studies, and labeling. AAEM's position paper stated, "Several animal studies indicate serious health risks associated with GM food," including infertility, immune problems, accelerated aging, insulin regulation, and changes in major organs and the gastrointestinal system. They conclude, "There is more than a casual association between GM foods and adverse health effects. There is causation," as defined by recognized scientific criteria. "The strength of association and consistency between GM foods and disease is confirmed in several animal studies." (much more here).

Estimating your own energy demand (cont.)

A natural gas processing plant. Essentially all industrial agriculture depends entirely on fertilizers derived from natural gas, just one of many reasons that the energy used to produce industrial food often dwarfs the energy content of the food itself. (Image via Wikipedia)

Last time the discussion showed you how to convert the three most-obvious forms of energy purchases to common units (kilowatt-hours, kWh). They were electricity, natural gas, and gasoline, the most recognizable types of energy that people in Salem commonly buy.

Recall that the global average energy consumption (total consumption divided by total world population) is about 48 kWh/day per person. This is the energy equal to burning 20 100w light bulbs for 24 hours. And the average consumption in the US is about six times as much -- burning 120 of those 100w bulbs all day and all night.

But this overlooks a disguised kind energy buying that we all do. The reason it is disguised is that we don't think of these purchases as involving energy at all, because we conceal the energy content of the purchases under another name: calories.

That's right, buying food means buying energy. That's all that food is, actually: one big macronutrient (energy, usually counted in calories) and a variety of micronutrients that the body needs in order to be able to access and use the food to make energy.

And food (energy in plant or animal form) is amazingly energy-dense. 860 food calories -- which you can easily get in a single dessert -- is the energy of 1 kWh, so it's the same energy that would keep 10 of our 100w light bulbs burning for an hour. So if you're on the nominal 2000 calorie diet, your daily energy intake represents 2.33 kWh of your daily energy consumption. If you're a man on the nominal 2500 calorie diet, you consume the equivalent of 2.9 kWh/day in food form.

Thus, a man eating 2500 calories a day and using only 48 kWh/day, the global average, consumes 6% of his daily energy as food, leaving him only 45 kWh left for everything else. His partner, a woman eating 2000 calories a day, uses 5% of the global average daily energy consumption to support her diet.

Where it gets really interesting is when you try to figure out how much energy it took to grow the food, process it, and deliver it to you. That's a complex question that's impossible to answer with certainty; however, numerous groups have tried to estimate this for the US, and the figure that is commonly heard is that every calorie we eat represents about 10 more (mostly from fossil fuels) that were burned delivering that one calorie to us. So our a daily 2500-calorie diet actually demands 25,000 calories, which is 29 kWh (23.25 kWh for the 2000-daily-calorie woman).

Staggering isn't it? The average global citizen only uses 48 kWh per day; in the US, we use 50-60% of that just to feed ourselves, even if we stay in bed all day with no heat or lights on, and certainly not driving or flying or using any electrical devices or tools.

US Dept. of Energy officially wakes up to Peak Oil

The US: still the third-ranked oil producing nation, but the one with the smallest reserve capacity (2% of global reserves). So "drill here, drill now" means exhausting our domestic reserves even faster. Wikipedia

This is very good news about some hard news. The first step to dealing well with reality is recognizing it. The DOE energy forecast group (Well-respected?! By who?) has previously been about as useful as a roomful of mystics on hashish.

So here's the headline for you: For the first time, the well-respected Energy Information Administration appears to be joining with those experts who have long argued that the era of cheap and plentiful oil is drawing to a close. Almost as notable, when it comes to news, the 2009 report highlights Asia's insatiable demand for energy and suggests that China is moving ever closer to the point at which it will overtake the United States as the world's number one energy consumer. Clearly, a new era of cutthroat energy competition is upon us.

Peak Oil Becomes the New Norm

As recently as 2007, the IEO projected that the global production of conventional oil (the stuff that comes gushing out of the ground in liquid form) would reach 107.2 million barrels per day in 2030, a substantial increase from the 81.5 million barrels produced in 2006. Now, in 2009, the latest edition of the report has grimly dropped that projected 2030 figure to just 93.1 million barrels per day -- in future-output terms, an eye-popping decline of 14.1 million expected barrels per day.

Even when you add in the 2009 report's projection of a larger increase than once expected in the output of unconventional fuels, you still end up with a net projected decline of 11.1 million barrels per day in the global supply of liquid fuels (when compared to the IEO's soaring 2007 projected figures). What does this decline signify -- other than growing pessimism by energy experts when it comes to the international supply of petroleum liquids?

Very simply, it indicates that the usually optimistic analysts at the Department of Energy now believe global fuel supplies will simply not be able to keep pace with rising world energy demands. For years now, assorted petroleum geologists and other energy types have been warning that world oil output is approaching a maximum sustainable daily level -- a peak -- and will subsequently go into decline, possibly producing global economic chaos. Whatever the timing of the arrival of peak oil's actual peak, there is growing agreement that we have, at last, made it into peak-oil territory, if not yet to the moment of irreversible decline.

More on phosphorus: More like this please!

Image via Wikipedia

Here's an encouraging story about a sewer treatment plant that has added a phosphorus recovery module. There are still huge problems with using sewage sludge as fertilizer --- because we don't have separate treatment facilities for industrial and commercial operations, our wastewater treatment plants are producing sludge loaded with heavy metals and other nasties that should not be allowed anywhere near food-producing land. But the phosphorus from the liquid component of the waste stream (urine carries much of the phosphorus we excrete) is not going to have that issue; the metals and such are going to be in the solid sludge component.

This is the sort of thing we need in every aspect of society: doing away with the idea of "waste" and closing all of our waste streams, turning them into loops instead. Note that this process turns what was a pollutant back into a valuable commercial resource. There are similar opportunities everywhere you look.

Ostara's technology removes 90 to 94 percent of the phosphorous and 20 percent of its ammonia the first time through, then transforms the nutrients into tiny, fertilizer pellets about the size of barley.

The fertilizer takes nine months to dissolve in soil -- a speed so slow it never leaches into the water table, Baur said.

Ostara is working with Mt. Angel-based Wilco, St. Paul-based Marion Ag Service and other partners in Oregon and Canada to distribute the new product.

Phosphorus, a nonrenewable and dwindling resource, is an important ingredient in fertilizer. Currently, it is mined in Florida and shipped across the country to Oregon and elsewhere, said Kennedy, who now serves on Ostara's board.

Crystal Green's local, less energy-intensive creation will make it less expensive, Baur said.

Of the 20 tons created at Durham since the Ostara reactors began operating in April, 11 were sold to the British Columbia Ministry of the Environment, which dumped it into nutrient-poor streams to help nourish the salmon population, Baur said.

The reactors are expected to produce 40 tons each month. Ostara used its first 20 tons as a test-run of the facility. Starting with fertilizer produced Wednesday, Ostara will pay Clean Water Services a per-ton amount that is expected to bring in at least $400,000 a year.

Along with money saved through operating efficiencies created by the new process, Clean Water Services expects to pay back its $2.5 million investment in five years or less -- and start making money after that.

Washington County Commissioner Roy Rogers has already had some experience with the product. His said his wife tossed some onto a Christmas cactus that hadn't bloomed for years. Now, he said, "The thing will not stop blooming."

A message to the nearly converted (Jason Bradford)

The kind of discussion we need to have around the campfire with every person. Image by JelleS via Flickr

An amazing, absorbing talk by Jason Bradford --- a crash course in thinking about where we are and where we have to go. You can read it online, and there's a download available (pdf) at the Salem Transition Initiative for Relocalization website (look under "Files").

Help Stop the Lockup of Prime Urban Farmland in Salem

(click on map for larger view)

Mark your calendars for the City Council meeting on Monday, June 22nd, as we need a bunch of folks to head down there and persuade the City Council to proceed a little more carefully with respect to the future of Minto Island:

Saving Salem's Farming Heritage

The City of Salem is rushing to unwisely lock up fertile urban farmland to get some federal stimulus money. This land has been farmed for over a century. The value of the stimulus money to Salem residents will be much less than that resulting from sustainable farming of this large tract of publicly owned urban land.

Hasty Rush for Stimulus
Immediate Choices with Permanence

The federal stimulus package enacted on February 17, 2009 includes payments for landowners agreeing to permanently remove parcels of farmland from production. The Salem City Council applied for stimulus funds by offering to end farming on 150 acres of Minto Island farmland along with another 150 acres of sloughs and other park land. The 300 acres is about one-third of the Minto Brown city park. The City staff nearly doubled the size of the proposal to 592 acres and if this expansion is approved on June 22nd by the City Council, then use of two-thirds of the Park will be controlled by federal restrictions placed on the property deed.

The urgency to get and spend stimulus funds means that Salem has had virtually no public involvement. Nor has Salem considered the long-term result of permanently locking up highly productive, close-in urban farmland.

Salem's Continuing Farm Legacy
150+ Years of Farm History

Over half of the City-owned Minto Brown Island property of almost 900 acres has been farmed at times for the last 150 years. About 240 acres have been successfully farmed for the last 23 years. The farmland is very productive; the periodic flooding nourishes and adds to the soil. The annual yield from the farmland has produced tons of beans, corn and wheat per year.

Marion County is still the top agriculture county in Oregon. As farmland within an urban growth boundary in the Willamette Valley, Minto Brown farmland is a tremendous resource that should be carefully husbanded and protected for future centuries of farm use. Our budget woes will come and go, but the people of Salem will always need fresh food.

Jobs: Short-Term/One-time vs. Long-Term Use
Local food production builds jobs, community strength

A dollar spent on food in Salem that goes for food grown in the Willamette Valley generates 87 cents of additional local economic activity, compared to food that is grown outside the valley. This includes activities related to growing and processing the food.

The work funded with the federal stimulus funds is short term---but it requires taking the land out of food production forever, meaning that not only do we lose the value of the land, but also the jobs that depend on farm production and processing.

Local Food is Better Food
Fresher, More Nutritious, Tastier, Less Energy Required

The energy invested in growing and consuming the same vegetables within 100 miles is much less in terms of transportation and storage then that invested in vegetables that travel an average of 1,500 miles. In America, our systems for growing and shipping food are so out of whack that the average calorie we eat consumed an additional ten calories of energy making its way to your fork --- so if you eat a 2000 calorie diet every day, your diet represents 20,000 calories a day of energy consumption (mostly fossil fuels).

Recharge Salem (interest survey)

NiMH batteries have good power characteristics, hold a charge well even when not used for a long time, and can be recharged hundreds of times. Image via Wikipedia

Click Here for a very short survey that is designed to find out if there is interest in Salem for a rechargeable battery service --- that is, a service that would offer to keep you supplied with as many high-quality nickel-metal hydride (NiMH) batteries as you like for less than the cost of disposables.

(NiMH batteries are the kind that hold their charge well and can be reused hundreds of times.)

Here at LOVESalem HQ we've been thinking about how to eliminate the flood of disposable batteries for some time. Only recently have rechargeable batteries become really good alternatives, but many people still think about nickel-cadmium rechargeables, which were not so good. So there's a bias against rechargeables that we have to overcome.

The idea is that, if we can offer people good-quality rechargeables for less than they spend now on throwaways, we can eliminate a big source of toxic waste that we generate.

So take the survey and help design the system!

Sad but true: Humans prefer cocky to expertise

Even talking about uncertainty can make you seem like an egghead. Image via Wikipedia

This is quite significant when you think about the wicked problems and predicaments that we face where we have to sort through a lot of uncertainty about what to do. People with real expertise often make confident predictions, but when dealing with complex issues, real experts tend to focus on the huge uncertainties that are inevitably part and parcel of the thing.

Meanwhile, blowhards (like those who pooh-pooh evidence that we are destabilizing the climate on the only planet we've got) can duplicate the confidence without any of the expertise:

The findings add weight to the idea that if offering expert opinion is your stock-in-trade, it pays to appear confident. Describing his work at an Association for Psychological Science meeting in San Francisco last month, Moore said that following the advice of the most confident person often makes sense, as there is evidence that precision and expertise do tend to go hand in hand. For example, people give a narrower range of answers when asked about subjects with which they are more familiar (Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, vol 107, p 179).

There are times, however, when this link breaks down. With complex but politicised subjects such as global warming, for example, scientific experts who stress uncertainties lose out to activists or lobbyists with a more emphatic message.

UN official joins the chorus: Bag the bags

The "Plastic Bag Tree" -- America's favorit. Image by Leonard John Matthews via Flickr

"Single use plastic bags which choke marine life, should be banned or phased out rapidly everywhere. There is simply zero justification for manufacturing them anymore, anywhere," said Achim Steiner, executive director of the U.N. Environment Programme. His office advises U.N. member states on environmental policies.

Steiner's declaration accompanied a UNEP report that identifies plastic as the most pervasive form of ocean litter. According to the report, "Plastic, the most prevalent component of marine debris, poses hazards because it persists so long in the ocean, degrading into tinier and tinier bits that can be consumed by the smallest marine life at the base of the food web."

The ban is already being tested in China, where retailers giving out thin bags can be fined up to $1,464. According to one nationwide survey, 40 billion fewer plastic bags were given out in grocery stores after the law's enactment. In addition, Ireland managed to cut single-use plastic bag consumption 90 percent by levying a fee on each bag that consumers use.

In the United States, only San Francisco has completely banned plastic bags; Los Angeles will do so in 2010. Also, the city council in Washington, D.C., is set to vote on a five-cent-a-bag tax later this month. On first reading, the bill passed unanimously. Similar proposals have failed in New York and Philadelphia.