Sad but true: Humans prefer cocky to expertise

Even talking about uncertainty can make you seem like an egghead. Image via Wikipedia

This is quite significant when you think about the wicked problems and predicaments that we face where we have to sort through a lot of uncertainty about what to do. People with real expertise often make confident predictions, but when dealing with complex issues, real experts tend to focus on the huge uncertainties that are inevitably part and parcel of the thing.

Meanwhile, blowhards (like those who pooh-pooh evidence that we are destabilizing the climate on the only planet we've got) can duplicate the confidence without any of the expertise:

The findings add weight to the idea that if offering expert opinion is your stock-in-trade, it pays to appear confident. Describing his work at an Association for Psychological Science meeting in San Francisco last month, Moore said that following the advice of the most confident person often makes sense, as there is evidence that precision and expertise do tend to go hand in hand. For example, people give a narrower range of answers when asked about subjects with which they are more familiar (Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, vol 107, p 179).

There are times, however, when this link breaks down. With complex but politicised subjects such as global warming, for example, scientific experts who stress uncertainties lose out to activists or lobbyists with a more emphatic message.