What is the Future of Education in a Post-oil America?

A friend involved in preparing for the transition to post-peak-oil America here in Cascadia has been mulling over the future of education, a field where he spent the end of the his second formal career (before starting his third as a farmer). He writes the following, which I pose as a query to those following LOVESalem. Feel free to chime in with a comment to respond to all of this or just a little piece of it.

The following quandary, described for education, applies to all public services --- and it is what our Whatcom County peak oil task force has discussed ad nauseum, with no sign of any conclusion on any aspect. You're all knowledgeable about peak oil and its likely consequences, so you're uniquely qualified to think beyond the peak.

All public education, by definition, gets funding from the entire tax base. We've seen already what happens in an economic downturn like the one we're in now - that tax base shrinks, and the tax collectors at all levels (except the feds, who just keep printing money and bailing out rich folks and fantasizing about "return to a growth economy") have to - by law - balance their budget and either

1. raise taxes, and/or
2. cut services.

In our state, nobody yet has the courage to go after more taxes - and schools at all levels are cutting budgets - including K-20 layoffs for the first time in anyone's memory.

Given that every burp in the price and/or availability of oil has always been followed by recession, and given that peak oil now means we now face decades of higher and higher oil prices and less and less availability, it's reasonable to think we'll have an ever-deepening recession, and an ever-declining tax base (or alternatively, taxes approaching 100%). At some point pretty soon, rising taxes will generate an awesome tax revolt, so we'd best start thinking about how to re-structure all education, from K-20, assuming there will be continually declining funding for it.

My guess is that the first thing deans & principals will advocate for is reduction in red-tape requirements, and all the 'non-essential' add-ons from the last few decades could disappear in a few years in order to avoid laying off faculty.

But I imagine something far worse than surgical fat trimming for a few years --- I envision cuts over the next few decades of a factor of, say, two to five. Not percent - but funding cuts by 2 to 5 times - coming on gradually over the next 20-30 years. If that seems a likely, or even a possible, outcome - then wised-up educators & ex-educators like yourselves could make yourselves super-useful by developing the outlines of a completely new strategic plan for that future, complete with a transition strategy. I do not see this as an "opportunity" for change - rather it's an exercise to engage in out of desperation in the post-peak world we're likely to enter tomorrow --- with a world short of all essential resources and in a state of major population overshoot. Some questions to start with:

1. What things about the system need fixing, regardless of peak oil? You've all mentioned several of those things already.

2. What will a desperate population REALLY need to know for maximum survival and well-being (or, if you're a pessimist, for minimal die-off)?

3. How can we re-organize K-20 education to provide that knowledge and/or experience?

4. What are the physical constraints (i.e., our super-silly suburban living arrangements, with severe restrictions on getting around - and don't tell me mass transit, which also depends on the tax base & fuel)?

5. What are some other big questions to consider?

Several years ago I asked author and educator Richard Heinberg whether he'd thought about this for higher ed, and he gave a massive shrug of his virtual shoulders and said he'd thought of it but it was too big for him.

Collectively, educators need to begin addressing this issue, just as the medical profession is belatedly starting to do.